1 November 2026, 18:15 UTC

Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Referee: E. Lambrechts
Full time5 – 2

Final score: Charleroi 5-2 RAAL La Louvière.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Charleroi, 26% draw, 20% RAAL La Louvière — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Charleroi at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Romsaasassist: F. Mbemba
6'
⚽A. Scheidler (pen)
33'
46'
🔁M. Courcoulout: L. Rousseau
46'
M. Wade
⚽W. Faye (OG)
47'
🔁J. Romsaasout: A. Colassin
48'
⚽F. Mbembaassist: P. Pflucke
49'
A. Ousou
52'
🔁P. Pfluckeout: I. Cisse
62'
🔁A. Scheidlerout: G. Nawata
62'
71'
🔁I. Coulibalyout: A. Tajaouart
71'
🔁Z. Gruberout: E. Filet
71'
🔁M. Wadeout: M. Boukamir
75'
⚽L. Rousseauassist: D. Lamego
76'
⚽M. Isahassist: W. Faye
⚽A. Colassinassist: F. Mbemba
84'
🔁F. Mbembaout: B. Dembaga
85'
🔁Y. Khalifiout: M. Kera
85'
C. Keita
89'
C. Keita
89'
C. Keita
89'
K. Van Den Kerkhof
89'

Match stats — Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière

57%Possession43%
15Shots10
6On target4
4Corners5
2.19xG0.97

Goals against chances

Charleroi5 from 2.19 xGmore than the chances were worth
RAAL La Louvière2 from 0.97 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 30Mohamed KonéG
  • 3Kevin Van Den KerkhofD
  • 4Aiham OusouD
  • 95Cheick KeitaD
  • 2Triston RoweD
  • 18Yassine KhalifiM
  • 6Amine BoukamirM
  • 14Patrick PflückeM
  • 8Jakob Napoleon RomsaasM
  • 20Freddy MbembaM
  • 21Aurélien ScheidlerF
Substitutes
  • 25Antoine ColassinF
  • 13Gaku NawataM
  • 19Isaac Ismaël CisséM
  • 51Mory KeraM
  • 23Boubakar DembagaM
  • 1Martin DelavalléeG
  • 33Noah SolheidD
  • 65Rafaël TeugelsD
  • 83Ahmed MulumbaF
RAAL La Louvière 5-3-2
  • 21Marcos Hernán PeanoG
  • 3Nolan GillotD
  • 4Wagane FayeD
  • 22Siad GourvilleD
  • 25Djibril LamegoD
  • 5Thierry LutondaD
  • 29Marius CourcoulM
  • 10Mame WadeM
  • 48Ismaila CoulibalyM
  • 30Zsombor GruberF
  • 11Mustapha IsahF
Substitutes
  • 90Léandro RousseauF
  • 44Mehdi BoukamirD
  • 78Anas TajaouartM
  • 9Elias FiletF
  • 91Théo RadeletG
  • 33Patrick NkoaD
  • 99Yllan OkouD
  • 7Mátyás KovácsM
  • 43Quentin BenaetsF

Form going into Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière

Charleroi

Jupiler Pro League

  • L0-3away to Antwerp24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Standard Liege11 October 2026
  • W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026

RAAL La Louvière

Jupiler Pro League

  • W3-0Zulte Waregem24 October 2026
  • L1-4Club Brugge KV10 October 2026
  • L0-2away to OH Leuven19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Charleroi119022613+1327
17RAAL La Louvière112181324-117

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière

  • 29 November 2025Charleroi 0–0 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
  • 10 August 2025RAAL La Louvière 1–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière

Charleroi

GoalsAssists

  • A. Scheidler62
  • F. Situmona Mbemba53

RAAL La Louvière

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ubandoma60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Charleroi beat RAAL La Louvière 5–2. The model had made a win for Charleroi its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Romsaas 6' for Charleroi, A. Scheidler (penalty) 33' for Charleroi, W. Faye (own goal) 47' for Charleroi, F. Mbemba 49' for Charleroi, L. Rousseau 75' for RAAL La Louvière, M. Isah 76' for RAAL La Louvière, A. Colassin 84' for Charleroi. Sent off: C. Keita (Charleroi) 89'. On expected goals it finished 2.19–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Charleroi a 39.0% chance to finish in the top four: 42.2% after a win, 35.4% after a draw, 31.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.2%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For RAAL La Louvière the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 29.1% going in: 18.9% after a win, 27.7% after a draw, 32.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.0%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 61% / 23% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Charleroi's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Charleroi win54%▼ −7
  2. Draw26%▲ +3
  3. RAAL La Louvière win20%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.