Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town League Two prediction & result
Final score: Exeter City 2-1 Fleetwood Town.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Exeter City, 36% draw, 24% Fleetwood Town — fair odds of 2.50, 2.78 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Exeter City at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. BycroftG
- 2L. SamuelD
- 6J. TaylorD
- 5J. FitzwaterD
- 3L. WoodhouseD
- 14H. KiteM
- 16C. CumminsM
- 20George BirchM
- 8T. PerryM
- 25A. ScullyM
- 10J. GordonF
- 12R. ColeM
- 19S. CoxF
- 24V. HarperD
- 40E. JamesD
- 18Liam OakesD
- 22Frankie PhillipsG
- 23Ethan SutherlandD
- 1J. LynchG
- 26S. RooneyD
- 16Conor HaugheyD
- 5F. PotterD
- 4H. NealM
- 14L. McCannM
- 27C. McLeanM
- 10M. HelmM
- 24Jake Thomas BattyM
- 17C. EvansF
- 19R. CoughlanF
- 29R. CirinoD
- 3D. AndrewD
- 9W. DaviesF
- 20A. Loupalo-BiF
- 15A. MurphyM
- 22J. PradicG
- 28J. RobertsonM
Form going into Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town
Exeter City
League Two
- W2-0Crewe20 October 2026
- D0-0away to Colchester17 October 2026
Fleetwood Town
League Two
- L2-4away to Cheltenham20 October 2026
- W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Exeter City | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town
- 24 February 2024Exeter City 1–1 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 11 November 2023Fleetwood Town 3–0 Exeter CityLeague One
- 1 April 2023Fleetwood Town 2–2 Exeter CityLeague One
- 22 October 2022Exeter City 2–1 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 22 March 2014Exeter City 3–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 28 September 2013Fleetwood Town 1–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Exeter City and Fleetwood Town
Exeter City
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Fleetwood Town
GoalsAssists
- R. Coughlan51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Exeter City beat Fleetwood Town 2–1. The model had made a win for Exeter City its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Charlie Cummins 58' for Exeter City, Ronan Coughlan 61' for Fleetwood Town, L. Woodhouse 64' for Exeter City. On expected goals it finished 1.26–0.90.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Exeter City a 9.7% chance to finish in the top three: 11.4% after a win, 9.1% after a draw, 6.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.4%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
For Fleetwood Town the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 7.4% going in: 4.8% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.5%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Exeter City v Fleetwood Town has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 36% / 24%: the biggest move is the draw, up 7 points.
- Exeter City win40%▼ −4
- Draw36%▲ +7
- Fleetwood Town win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.