Jong Ajax vs Vitesse Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Jong Ajax 1-1 Vitesse.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Jong Ajax, 29% draw, 36% Vitesse — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Vitesse at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jong Ajax vs Vitesse
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. HeerkensG
- 2R. van de PavertD
- 3G. SpinaD
- 4M. MuzunguD
- 5J. AmourD
- 10Alejandro MonserrateM
- 6T. PetersM
- 8Mohamed AbdallaM
- 7E. ÜnüvarF
- 9D. PugnoF
- 11P. NashF
- 18L. FrankelD
- 20Jinairo JohnsonD
- 23Leo SalazarM
- 12C. SetfordG
- 24J. SimeonF
- 21M. VerkuijlM
- 17M. van der LansD
- 25Jan FaberskiF
- 30A. HaniG
- 1C. van den BergG
- 24N. MarkeloD
- 17V. ZumberiD
- 14O. AchouitarD
- 15L. WoutersD
- 6M. SchikoraM
- 28A. BüttnerM
- 20F. de CarvalhoM
- 27E. ProbstM
- 21A. SelloufM
- 9N. BannisF
- 19J. HiltermanF
- 16P. DahboM
- 31M. BrullG
- 25T. BodakG
- 33M. MarschalkM
- 34Y. OuallilM
- 2S. BonnahD
- 13J. PintoF
- 8Ricardo-Felipe SchwarzM
Form going into Jong Ajax vs Vitesse
Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie
- D3-3away to FC OSS23 October 2026
- W2-1De Graafschap19 October 2026
- L0-3VVV Venlo9 October 2026
Vitesse
Eerste Divisie
- L0-2Emmen23 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Eindhoven16 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Volendam9 October 2026
- D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026
What these results say
- Vitesse failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vitesse conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Vitesse had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 16 |
| 11 | Vitesse | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jong Ajax vs Vitesse
- 6 April 2026Vitesse 6–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 1 December 2025Jong Ajax 2–0 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 14 April 2025Jong Ajax 1–1 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 21 September 2024Vitesse 2–2 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Jong Ajax and Vitesse
Jong Ajax
GoalsAssists
- E. Ünüvar80
- D. Pugno62
Vitesse
GoalsAssists
- N. Bannis103
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Jong Ajax and Vitesse drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Vitesse at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Pharell Nash 3' for Jong Ajax, Jeredy Hilterman 87' for Vitesse. On expected goals it finished 0.90–0.72.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jong Ajax a 34.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 28.2% after a win, 34.8% after a draw, 38.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 34.8%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
For Vitesse the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 55.9% going in: 62.3% after a win, 53.8% after a draw, 49.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 53.8%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Jong Ajax v Vitesse has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Vitesse's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Jong Ajax win35%▲ +3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Vitesse win36%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.