24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Gillingham vs Grimsby League Two prediction & result

Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Gillingham 1-4 Grimsby.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Gillingham, 27% draw, 39% Grimsby — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Grimsby at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gillingham0%Draw1%Grimsby99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Harvey Rodgers
Garath McCleary
24'
⚽Ronan Chapman Haleassist: Garath McCleary
37'
43'
Géza Dávid Turi
51'
Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor
Armani Little
53'
54'
⚽Iwan Morgan (pen)
55'
🔁Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzorout: Sonny Finch
62'
Maldini Kacurri
63'
⚽Géza Dávid Turi
🔁Garath McClearyout: Tom Eaves
66'
🔁Nick Freemanout: S. Kendall
67'
70'
⚽Sonny Finchassist: Géza Dávid Turi
72'
🔁Géza Dávid Turiout: Mark Shelton
72'
🔁Iwan Morganout: Josh andrews
🔁Armani Littleout: Ethan·Coleman
79'
81'
🔁Kieran Greenout: Cian Doyle
81'
🔁Jamie Walkerout: Finn Cartwright
89'
Sonny Finch
Ethan·Coleman
90'

Match stats — Gillingham vs Grimsby

55%Possession45%
8Shots21
2On target9
4Corners6
0.57xG2.94

Goals against chances

Gillingham1 from 0.57 xGabout what the chances were worth
Grimsby4 from 2.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gillingham 3-4-3
  • 1O. WrightG
  • 5A. SmithD
  • 19O. BecklesD
  • 20J. DaleyD
  • 22N. FreemanM
  • 14R. McKenzieM
  • 8A. LittleM
  • 3Conor McManusM
  • 12G. McClearyF
  • 10Ronan HaleF
  • 16J. BrophyF
Substitutes
  • 6E. ColemanM
  • 23B. DackM
  • 39T. EavesF
  • 40R. LuthraG
  • 24H. WaldockM
  • 26L. DobbsD
  • 18S. KendallM
Coach: G. Ainsworth
Grimsby 4-1-4-1
  • 31C. PymG
  • 5H. RodgersD
  • 2M. KacurriD
  • 12J. FoulkesD
  • 9Iwan MorganD
  • 15G. TuriM
  • 14J. AmaluzorM
  • 4K. GreenM
  • 7J. WalkerM
  • 30C. VernamM
  • 39A. CookF
Substitutes
  • 29M. SheltonM
  • 10S. FinchF
  • 8Cian DoyleM
  • 1H. CartwrightG
  • 11Ryley ReynoldsM
  • 28F. CartwrightM
  • 19J. AndrewsF
Coach: D. Artell

Form going into Gillingham vs Grimsby

Gillingham

League Two

  • D1-1Port Vale20 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026

Grimsby

League Two

  • D2-2away to Rochdale20 October 2026
  • L0-2Northampton17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Gillingham155552021-120
3Grimsby156542819+923

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gillingham vs Grimsby

  • 18 April 2026Gillingham 1–4 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 18 October 2025Grimsby 1–0 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 28 January 2025Grimsby 1–1 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 1 October 2024Gillingham 0–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 16 March 2024Gillingham 1–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 2 September 2023Grimsby 2–0 GillinghamLeague Two

Leading scorers: Gillingham and Grimsby

Gillingham

GoalsAssists

  • Ronan Hale61

Grimsby

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Grimsby won 4–1 at Gillingham. The model had made a win for Grimsby its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Harvey Rodgers 7' for Grimsby, Ronan Chapman Hale 37' for Gillingham, Iwan Morgan (penalty) 54' for Grimsby, Géza Dávid Turi 63' for Grimsby, Sonny Finch 70' for Grimsby. On expected goals it finished 0.57–2.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gillingham a 5.2% chance to finish in the top three: 6.8% after a win, 4.5% after a draw, 3.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.5%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

For Grimsby the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 12.4% going in: 15.9% after a win, 12.1% after a draw, 8.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.9%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Gillingham v Grimsby has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Gillingham's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Gillingham win34%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Grimsby win39%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.