7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew Major League Soccer prediction & result

Soldier Field, Chicago
Referee: R. Mendoza
Full time3 – 4

Final score: Chicago Fire 3-4 Columbus Crew.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Chicago Fire, 25% draw, 32% Columbus Crew — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Chicago Fire at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chicago Fire5%Draw91%Columbus Crew4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Robert Lewandowski (pen)
8'
Noah Allen
11'
16'
⚽Gonzalo Tapiaassist: Taha Habroune
⚽Robert Lewandowski (pen)
22'
23'
⚽Anass Zaroury
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
27'
⚽Maren Haile-Selassie
45+4'
45'
🔁Sekou Tidiany Bangouraout: Brais Méndez
🔁Djé D'Avillaout: Anzor Mekvabishvili
45'
🔁Noah Allenout: Andrew Gutman
45'
Jonathan Bamba
53'
62'
⚽Gonzalo Tapiaassist: Malte Amundsen
62'
Gonzalo Tapia
🔁Mbekezeli Mbokaziout: Jack Elliott
68'
🔁Jonathan Bambaout: André Franco
69'
Anzor Mekvabishvili
74'
78'
🔁Dylan Chambostout: André Gomes
79'
Santiago Rodriguez
🔁Philip Zinckernagelout: Puso Dithejane
83'
83'
🔁Mohamed Farsiout: Brooks Lennon
83'
🔁Anass Zarouryout: Marcelo Andrés Herrera
90+1'
🔁Gonzalo Tapiaout: Jamal Thiare
90+3'
⚽Brais Méndez

Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew

53%Possession47%
14Shots11
6On target6
6Corners4
2.97xG1.54

Goals against chances

Chicago Fire3 from 2.97 xGabout what the chances were worth
Columbus Crew4 from 1.54 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chicago Fire 4-4-2
  • 1C. BradyG
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
  • 4M. MbokaziD
  • 32N. AllenD
  • 11P. ZinckernagelM
  • 6A. SalétrosM
  • 42T. D'AvillaM
  • 19J. BambaM
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieF
Substitutes
  • 10André FrancoM
  • 12P. DithejaneF
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 2Leonardo BarrosoD
  • 3J. ElliottD
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 18J. GómezF
  • 23A. MekvabishviliM
  • 35S. OregelM
Coach: G. Berhalter
Columbus Crew 3-4-3
  • 28P. SchulteG
  • 31S. MoreiraD
  • 25S. ZawadzkiD
  • 18M. AmundsenD
  • 23M. FarsiM
  • 7D. ChambostM
  • 17S. BangouraM
  • 21A. ZarouryM
  • 16T. HabrouneF
  • 33G. TapiaF
  • 8S. RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 26L. GiacconeM
  • 1N. HagenG
  • 2M. HerreraD
  • 11B. LennonD
  • 77Josef MartínezF
  • 10Brais MéndezM
  • 20André GomesM
  • 3E. BaillyD
  • 19J. ThiaréF
Coach: L. Courtois

Form going into Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew

Chicago Fire

Major League Soccer

  • W4-2away to Colorado Rapids1 November 2026
  • D2-2Orlando City SC29 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Atlanta United FC24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to New England Revolution17 October 2026

Columbus Crew

Major League Soccer

  • W3-0DC United31 October 2026
  • W2-0away to FC Dallas29 October 2026
  • W4-2Toronto FC24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to FC Cincinnati18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Chicago Fire scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Chicago Fire had three goals or more.
  • Columbus Crew won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Columbus Crew scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Columbus Crew kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Chicago Fire34167116454+1055
7Columbus Crew34145155952+747

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew

  • 8 March 2026Columbus Crew 0–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 28 September 2025Chicago Fire 2–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 23 February 2025Columbus Crew 4–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 19 May 2024Chicago Fire 1–3 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 10 March 2024Columbus Crew 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 20 September 2023Columbus Crew 3–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Columbus Crew won 4–3 at Chicago Fire. The model had leaned towards a win for Chicago Fire at 43% and given a win for Columbus Crew 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Robert Lewandowski (penalty) 8' for Chicago Fire, Gonzalo Tapia 16' for Columbus Crew, Robert Lewandowski (penalty) 22' for Chicago Fire, Anass Zaroury 23' for Columbus Crew, Maren Haile-Selassie 45+4' for Chicago Fire, Gonzalo Tapia 62' for Columbus Crew, Brais Méndez 90+3' for Columbus Crew. On expected goals it finished 2.97–1.54.

How the call on Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 25% / 32%: the biggest move is Columbus Crew's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Chicago Fire win43%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Columbus Crew win32%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.