Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Chicago Fire 1-3 Philadelphia Union.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Chicago Fire, 24% draw, 35% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Chicago Fire at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. BradyG
- 24J. DeanD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 32N. AllenD
- 18J. GómezM
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 22M. PinedaM
- 19J. BambaM
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 7M. Haile-SelassieF
- 15A. GutmanD
- 25J. GalG
- 11P. ZinckernagelF
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 44J. CohenG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
- 35S. OregelM
- 29D. PorębaM
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 4J. LukićM
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 9B. DamianiF
- 16B. BenderM
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 23E. AlladohF
- 19I. VassilevM
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 2G. MartínezD
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 76A. RickG
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
Form going into Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
All competitions we cover
- W2-1New York City FC10 October 2026
- W3-1Vancouver Whitecaps7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution13 September 2026
Philadelphia Union
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 October 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
- W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
What these results say
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chicago Fire had three goals or more.
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 64 | 54 | +10 | 55 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
- 21 March 2026Philadelphia Union 1–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 1 November 2025Chicago Fire 0–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 26 October 2025Philadelphia Union 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 23 August 2025Philadelphia Union 4–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2025Chicago Fire 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 64 league goals as a side.
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Philadelphia Union won 3–1 at Chicago Fire. The model had leaned towards a win for Chicago Fire at 41% and given a win for Philadelphia Union 35%. The goals: Maren Haile-Selassie 44' for Chicago Fire, Milan Iloski 49' for Philadelphia Union, Bruno Damiani 55' for Philadelphia Union, Bruno Damiani 67' for Philadelphia Union. Sent off: Jack Elliott (Chicago Fire) 45+1'. On expected goals it finished 0.87–2.24.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chicago Fire a 80.5% chance to finish in the top four: 92.9% after a win, 80.5% after a draw, 69.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.8%, 10.7 points lower than before the match.
For Philadelphia Union the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 28.6% going in: 43.0% after a win, 24.7% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.0%, 14.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Chicago Fire v Philadelphia Union has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 37% / 26% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 24% / 35%: the biggest move is Chicago Fire's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Chicago Fire win41%▲ +4
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Philadelphia Union win35%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.