St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 0-0 Vancouver Whitecaps.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% St. Louis City, 25% draw, 33% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
St. Louis City at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. BürkiG
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 27F. FallD
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 23A. MățanF
- 28M. PerezM
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 11S. BecherF
- 42D. DownsF
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 39B. LundtG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 7T. OstrákM
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18É. OcampoD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 6R. PrisoD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 8O. LarrazM
- 20A. CubasM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 25R. GauldM
- 77Y. DiabyM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezF
- 23A. CvetkovićM
- 41N. DjordjevicD
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 70Rui ModestoM
- 7C. SabalyF
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 4R. VeselinovićD
Form going into St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- W6-2Los Angeles Galaxy11 October 2026
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Chicago Fire7 October 2026
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
- L1-2Austin13 September 2026
What these results say
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for St. Louis City had three goals or more.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 34 | +40 | 64 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 6 September 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 3–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 20 April 2025St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024St. Louis City 1–4 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 30 June 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 4–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White202
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Louis City at 42% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.75–0.83.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave St. Louis City a 38.0% chance to finish top of the Western Conference: 57.6% after a win, 29.8% after a draw, 11.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 29.8%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.
For Vancouver Whitecaps the question was the chance to finish top of the Western Conference, 54.5% going in: 82.5% after a win, 59.7% after a draw, 34.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 59.7%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on St. Louis City v Vancouver Whitecaps has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 25% / 33%: the biggest move is St. Louis City's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- St. Louis City win42%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Vancouver Whitecaps win33%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.