15 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer prediction & result

Geodis Park, Nashville
Referee: Joshua Encarnacion
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Nashville SC 4-0 Sporting Kansas City.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Nashville SC, 16% draw, 9% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nashville SC at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nashville SC99%Draw1%Sporting Kansas City0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Hany Mukhtarassist: Andy Najar
10'
⚽Sam Surridgeassist: Hany Mukhtar
17'
⚽Andy Najarassist: Cristian Espinoza
29'
45'
🔁Zorhan Bassongout: Jacob Bartlett
45'
🔁André Luizout: Calvin Harris
53'
🔁Seymour Garfield-Reidout: Taylor Calheira
•Sam Surridge
65'
🔁Andy Najarout: Daniel Lovitz
68'
🔁Cristian Espinozaout: Shakur Mohammed
68'
69'
🔁Ian Jamesout: Jacob Davis
🔁matthew corcoranout: Bryan Acosta
76'
🔁Hany Mukhtarout: Warren Madrigal
76'
81'
🔁Jayden Reidout: Emir Karic
🔁Sam Surridgeout: Alex Muyl
83'
•Warren Madrigal
90+3'
⚽Warren Madrigal (pen)
90+5'

Match stats — Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City

49%Possession51%
18Shots8
11On target1
7Corners4
3.81xG0.49

Goals against chances

Nashville SC4 from 3.81 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sporting Kansas City0 from 0.49 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
  • 99B. SchwakeG
  • 31A. NajarD
  • 4J. PalaciosD
  • 3M. WoledziD
  • 27R. Baker-WhitingD
  • 20E. TagsethM
  • 16M. CorcoranM
  • 7C. EspinozaM
  • 10H. MukhtarM
  • 11E. SaadM
  • 9S. SurridgeF
Substitutes
  • 8P. YazbekM
  • 6B. AcostaM
  • 22J. BauerD
  • 2D. LovitzD
  • 41W. MadrigalF
  • 5J. MaherD
  • 14S. MohammedM
  • 19A. MuylM
  • 1J. WillisG
Coach: B. Callaghan
Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
  • 30S. ClevelandG
  • 2I. JamesD
  • 15Jansen MillerD
  • 28Wyatt MeyerD
  • 99J. ReidD
  • 11André LuizM
  • 22Z. BassongM
  • 20K. AgyabengM
  • 93M. SuleymanovM
  • 24R. RamosF
  • 29S. ReidF
Substitutes
  • 23E. BartlowD
  • 16J. BartlettD
  • 17S. AfrifaF
  • 1J. PulskampG
  • 7CapitaF
  • 8J. DavisM
  • 14C. HarrisF
  • 18E. KarićD
  • 19T. CalheiraF
Coach: R. Wicky

Form going into Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City

Nashville SC

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1away to Austin11 October 2026
  • W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
  • W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Toronto FC9 September 2026

Sporting Kansas City

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Portland Timbers11 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
  • L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
  • W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Nashville SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Nashville SC had three goals or more.
  • Sporting Kansas City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting Kansas City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Kansas City had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Nashville SC3423837125+4677
15Sporting Kansas City3475224081-4126

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City

  • 30 January 2024Nashville SC 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 September 2023Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 19 June 2022Nashville SC 1–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 10 April 2022Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 11 October 2020Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City

Nashville SC

GoalsAssists

  • S. Surridge211
  • H. Mukhtar167

Sporting Kansas City

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nashville SC beat Sporting Kansas City 4–0. The model had made a win for Nashville SC its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Hany Mukhtar 10' for Nashville SC, Sam Surridge 17' for Nashville SC, Andy Najar 29' for Nashville SC, Warren Madrigal (penalty) 90+5' for Nashville SC. On expected goals it finished 3.81–0.49.

How the call on Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 65% / 21% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 75% / 16% / 9%: the biggest move is Nashville SC's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Nashville SC win75%▲ +10
  2. Draw16%▼ −5
  3. Sporting Kansas City win9%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.