Sportivo Trinidense vs Rubio NU Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Sportivo Trinidense 2-4 Rubio NU.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Sportivo Trinidense, 21% draw, 14% Rubio NU — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sportivo Trinidense at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sportivo Trinidense vs Rubio NU
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12V. SamudioG
- 23C. BenítezD
- 40A. da SilveiraD
- 6A. CañeteD
- 4D. MelgarejoD
- 5N. GautoM
- 10N. ManáM
- 21G. VieraM
- 22J. GamarraM
- 31A. MorinigoM
- 20C. GonzálezF
- 13Deivis Faustino Barone MoraF
- 11L. AbreuM
- 7N. CamachoF
- 19A. CanoM
- 1M. DufourG
- 9O. GiménezF
- 37L. GonzalezM
- 28B. LeguizamonM
- 16J. MarcelinoM
- 32L. MaldonadoG
- 13V. CabañasD
- 31B. BlasiD
- 3J. VallejosD
- 5P. ÁlvarezD
- 23Tobías LeivaM
- 15C. NúñezM
- 26S. FretesM
- 18M. AcostaM
- 11M. RoldánM
- 9R. Ruiz DíazF
- 29O. AlfonsoF
- 1T. CanterosG
- 2R. FerreiraD
- 16J. GonzálezD
- 27A. LedesmaM
- 10W. MendietaM
- 20A. PáezF
- 40Estiven Osmar Pérez YegrosF
- 14M. RamosD
Form going into Sportivo Trinidense vs Rubio NU
Sportivo Trinidense
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W1-0away to Nacional Asuncion24 October 2026
- W1-0Libertad Asuncion18 October 2026
Rubio NU
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-2Club Guarani23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Recoleta16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 18 | +13 | 34 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Trinidense vs Rubio NU
- 21 August 2026Rubio NU 0–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 6 April 2026Sportivo Trinidense 4–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 7 February 2026Rubio NU 0–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 25 July 2022Rubio NU 0–2 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Intermedia
- 18 April 2022Sportivo Trinidense 0–0 Rubio NUDivision Intermedia
- 21 July 2021Sportivo Trinidense 2–2 Rubio NUDivision Intermedia
Leading scorers: Sportivo Trinidense and Rubio NU
Sportivo Trinidense
GoalsAssists
- F. Romero71
Rubio NU
GoalsAssists
- R. Ruiz Díaz43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rubio NU won 4–2 at Sportivo Trinidense. The model had leaned towards a win for Sportivo Trinidense at 65% and given a win for Rubio NU 14%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: Mauricio Roldan (penalty) 7' for Rubio NU, Marcelo Rubén Acosta Ríos 9' for Rubio NU, Rodrigo Ruiz Díaz 20' for Rubio NU, Luis Carlos Abreu Benegas 55' for Sportivo Trinidense, Mauricio Roldan 60' for Rubio NU, Axel Rolando Cañete Ortiz 78' for Sportivo Trinidense. On expected goals it finished 2.74–2.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sportivo Trinidense a 83.4% chance to finish in the top four: 88.5% after a win, 73.4% after a draw, 66.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.7%, 16.7 points lower than before the match.
For Rubio NU the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 71.7% going in: 50.2% after a win, 67.5% after a draw, 76.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.2%, 21.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sportivo Trinidense v Rubio NU has moved
First published on 20 Oct at 62% / 22% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 65% / 21% / 14%: the biggest move is Sportivo Trinidense's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sportivo Trinidense win65%▲ +3
- Draw21%▼ −1
- Rubio NU win14%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.