31 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Roque F. Batelhana, Asuncion
Referee: Alipio Colman
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Deportivo Recoleta 3-0 Sportivo Ameliano.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Deportivo Recoleta, 26% draw, 35% Sportivo Ameliano — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Recoleta at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Recoleta99%Draw1%Sportivo Ameliano0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Aldo Walmor González Románassist: Nicolas Marotta
12'
31'
•R. Torales
⚽Claudio Garay (pen)
37'
Juan Franco
45'
🔁Brahian Vidal Ferreira Benítezout: Wilfrido Baez
45'
45'
🔁Raul Ignacio Cabralout: Luis Ortiz
⚽Aldo Walmor González Románassist: Pedro David Ríos Galeano
54'
59'
🔁Fredy Veraout: Carlos Fabricio Favero Villasanti
59'
🔁Ronald David Peralta Chavezout: Fabián Franco
🔁Claudio Garayout: Alejandro Silva
61'
🔁Juan Francoout: Ronal Iván Domínguez Colmán
61'
🔁Aldo Walmor González Románout: Renzo José Martino Campuzano
61'
🔁Marcelo Medinaout: Fernando Galeano
65'
Ronal Iván Domínguez Colmán
68'
75'
🔁Jonathan Daniel Benítez Benítezout: Estivel Moreira
81'
🔁Edgar Paezout: Luis María Ayala Bentos

Match stats — Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano

42%Possession58%
16Shots15
8On target6
5Corners3
3.04xG0.98

Goals against chances

Deportivo Recoleta3 from 3.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sportivo Ameliano0 from 0.98 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Recoleta 4-4-2
  • 13O. ToledoG
  • 15B. MedinaD
  • 5N. MarottaD
  • 32L. MonzónD
  • 18P. RiosD
  • 36B. FerreiraM
  • 38J. FrancoM
  • 21C. GarayM
  • 31M. ShuppM
  • 30P. CharpentierF
  • 33A. GonzálezF
Substitutes
  • 3L. CardozoD
  • 17W. BáezF
  • 20M. CañeteM
  • 7R. DomínguezM
  • 6J. EspínolaD
  • 8F. GaleanoM
  • 1A. MarsegnoG
  • 25Renzo José Martino CampuzanoD
  • 34Mathías Nicolás Masi PuschkarevichM
Coach: J. González
Sportivo Ameliano 4-1-4-1
  • 35Á. SánchezG
  • 13R. PeraltaD
  • 5H. BenítezD
  • 22L. FalabellaD
  • 19A. ParedesD
  • 6J. BenítezM
  • 7F. VeraM
  • 20V. LarraldeM
  • 10R. CabralM
  • 14E. ToralesM
  • 17R. ToralesF
Substitutes
  • 2Luciano SuarezD
  • 15W. RodríguezM
  • 18L. OrtizM
  • 29L. OlmedoM
  • 8E. MoreiraM
  • 21F. FrancoD
  • 16C. FaveroF
  • 32G. CamargoM
  • 3F. BáezD
Coach: Roberto Nanni

Form going into Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano

Deportivo Recoleta

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D1-1away to 2 de Mayo24 October 2026
  • W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026

Sportivo Ameliano

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L2-3Olimpia25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Cerro Porteno18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Deportivo Recoleta1944112133-1216
9Sportivo Ameliano194781928-919

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano

  • 22 August 2026Sportivo Ameliano 3–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 11 May 2026Sportivo Ameliano 3–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 9 March 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 29 September 2025Sportivo Ameliano 1–4 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 21 July 2025Deportivo Recoleta 3–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 10 May 2025Sportivo Ameliano 1–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Deportivo Recoleta and Sportivo Ameliano

Deportivo Recoleta

GoalsAssists

  • A. Wlk131
  • A. González51

Sportivo Ameliano

GoalsAssists

  • C. Ocampos53
  • R. Torales51
  • E. Moreira50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Recoleta beat Sportivo Ameliano 3–0. The model had made a win for Deportivo Recoleta its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Aldo Walmor González Román 12' for Deportivo Recoleta, Claudio Garay (penalty) 37' for Deportivo Recoleta, Aldo Walmor González Román 54' for Deportivo Recoleta. On expected goals it finished 3.04–0.98.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Recoleta a 92.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 87.2% after a win, 95.3% after a draw, 97.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.2%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.

For Sportivo Ameliano the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 4.3% going in: 1.2% after a win, 3.2% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.0%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.