Boca Juniors vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Boca Juniors 1-0 River Plate.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Boca Juniors, 30% draw, 26% River Plate — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Boca Juniors at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Boca Juniors vs River Plate
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Á. MonteroG
- 17L. LozanoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 42F. HerreraD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 25S. AscacíbarM
- 5L. ParedesM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 19L. FloresF
- 16M. MerentielF
- 22S. VillaF
- 6R. BattagliaM
- 15W. AlarcónM
- 8T. BelmonteM
- 27M. BraidaM
- 12L. BreyG
- 32A. CostaD
- 4N. FigalD
- 24D. GorositoD
- 7C. PalaciosM
- 41S. BeltránG
- 29G. MontielD
- 28L. MartínezD
- 30N. OtamendiD
- 21M. AcuñaD
- 50T. AndradaM
- 44L. SilvaM
- 26T. GalvánM
- 23T. AlmadaM
- 10Á. CorreaF
- 18L. BeltránF
- 2T. PalacioD
- 13L. RiveroD
- 9S. DriussiF
- 33E. CenturiónG
- 19R. BorréF
- 8M. ArambarriM
- 27Santiago Joaquín EspíndolaM
- 20G. GonzálezD
- 43V. LuceroM
Form going into Boca Juniors vs River Plate
Boca Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W1-0away to Independiente25 October 2026
- W2-1Talleres Cordoba17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026
River Plate
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W1-0Racing Club25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Belgrano Cordoba18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin14 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 33 |
| 4 | River Plate | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs River Plate
Boca Juniors and River Plate have met 7 times in the records we hold, Boca Juniors has won 4 of them to River Plate's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Boca Juniors won the last one 1–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 |
| River Plate | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors 1–0 River Plate - 19 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRiver Plate 0–1 Boca Juniors - 9 Nov 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors 2–0 River Plate - 27 Apr 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRiver Plate 2–1 Boca Juniors - 21 Sep 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors 0–1 River Plate - 21 Apr 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalRiver Plate 2–3 Boca Juniors - 25 Feb 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalRiver Plate 1–1 Boca Juniors
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Boca Juniors' attack rates 9% above River Plate's, and Boca Juniors concede 8% fewer than River Plate. That gives Boca Juniors the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 1.02 | 0.93 |
| River Plate | 0.94 | 1.01 |
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and River Plate
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Boca Juniors beat River Plate 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Boca Juniors at 44%. The goal: Lautaro Di Lollo 27' for Boca Juniors. Sent off: Lucas Martinez Quarta (River Plate) 10', Gonzalo Montiel (River Plate) 79'. On expected goals it finished 1.23–0.13.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Boca Juniors a 5.7% chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 11.5% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.5%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Boca Juniors v River Plate has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 30% / 26%: the biggest move is Boca Juniors's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Boca Juniors win44%▼ −4
- Draw30%▲ +2
- River Plate win26%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.