25 October 2026, 02:30 UTC

Portland Timbers vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result

Providence Park, Portland
Referee: Rosendo Mendoza
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Portland Timbers 3-2 Charlotte.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Portland Timbers, 25% draw, 40% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Charlotte at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portland Timbers4%Draw91%Charlotte5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Pep Bielassist: Ashley Westwood
⚽Ariel Lassiterassist: Eric Izoita
11'
Eric Izoita
17'
⚽Ariel Lassiterassist: Eric Izoita
40'
45'
Nathan Byrne
62'
🔁Liel Abadaout: Luca De La Torre
🔁Jímer Foryout: Ian Smith
64'
🔁Eric Izoitaout: Cole Bassett
64'
69'
⚽Idan Toklomati Jornoassist: Luca De La Torre
71'
🔁Rodolfo Alokoout: Tyger Smalls
71'
🔁David Schneggout: Harry Toffolo
🔁Vincent Janssenout: Alexander Aravena
83'
🔁Ariel Lassiterout: Omir Fernandez
83'
85'
🔁Ashley Westwoodout: Baye Coulibaly
⚽Alexander Aravenaassist: Cole Bassett
90+6'

Match stats — Portland Timbers vs Charlotte

56%Possession44%
27Shots6
13On target3
9Corners3
3.38xG0.86

Goals against chances

Portland Timbers3 from 3.38 xGabout what the chances were worth
Charlotte2 from 0.86 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portland Timbers 4-3-3
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 12R. HernándezD
  • 2J. WatermanD
  • 4K. MillerD
  • 27J. ForyD
  • 73Eric IzoitaM
  • 30J. CaicedoM
  • 10David Pereira da CostaM
  • 7A. LassiterF
  • 14V. JanssenF
  • 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
  • 21D. CharáM
  • 22O. FernandezF
  • 28A. AravenaF
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 23Ian SmithD
  • 26H. SulteG
  • 20F. SurmanD
Coach: Martí Cifuentes
Charlotte 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. KahlinaG
  • 14N. ByrneD
  • 44M. AgyemangD
  • 22H. KesslerD
  • 23D. SchneggD
  • 8A. WestwoodM
  • 28D. DianiM
  • 37R. AlokoM
  • 16Pep BielM
  • 11L. AbadaM
  • 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
Substitutes
  • 25Tyger SmallsF
  • 15H. ToffoloD
  • 4A. PrivettD
  • 21T. MillerG
  • 17L. de la TorreM
  • 71N. RichmondF
  • 20B. CoulibalyM
  • 83H. MbongueF
  • 39J. NeeleyD
Coach: D. Smith

Form going into Portland Timbers vs Charlotte

Portland Timbers

Major League Soccer

  • D0-0Colorado Rapids18 October 2026

Charlotte

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2away to Philadelphia Union17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Portland Timbers34137146261+146
5Charlotte34159106651+1554

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Charlotte

  • 15 February 2025Charlotte 2–0 Portland TimbersFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 May 2024Charlotte 2–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Portland Timbers and Charlotte

Portland Timbers

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 62 league goals as a side.

Charlotte

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toklomati Giorno155

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Portland Timbers beat Charlotte 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Charlotte at 40% and given a win for Portland Timbers 35%. The goals: Pep Biel 3' for Charlotte, Ariel Lassiter 11' for Portland Timbers, Ariel Lassiter 40' for Portland Timbers, Idan Toklomati Jorno 69' for Charlotte, Alexander Aravena 90+6' for Portland Timbers. On expected goals it finished 3.38–0.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Portland Timbers a 42.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.8% after a win, 42.9% after a draw, 59.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.8%, 22.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.