25 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Referee: Jordi Espinoza
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Deportivo Garcilaso, 24% draw, 17% Club Deportivo Los Chankas — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Garcilaso at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Garcilaso99%Draw1%Club Deportivo Los Chankas0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Xavi Moreno Laymeout: Joao Neitan Mendoza Ayala
7'
•Pablo Labrin
12'
18'
Gonzalo Rizzo
⚽Facundo Castelliassist: Agustin Gonzalez
20'
🔁Francisco Arancibiaout: Christopher Olivares
23'
Carlos Ramos
34'
🔁Pablo Labrinout: Claudio Torrejón
45'
45'
🔁Abdiel Ayarzaout: Jarlin Quintero
51'
Oshiro Takeuchi
54'
Héctor González
⚽Christopher Olivaresassist: José Anthony Rosell
54'
Lisandro Greppo
62'
66'
🔁Jorge Palominoout: Kelvin Sanchez
66'
🔁Gonzalo Rizzoout: A. Campos
66'
🔁Oshiro Takeuchiout: Michael Kaufman
⚽Christopher Olivaresassist: Facundo Castelli
67'
•Christopher Olivares
68'
⚽Agustin Gonzalezassist: Beto Da Silva
73'
74'
🔁Axel Chávezout: David Martín Gonzáles García
🔁Facundo Castelliout: S. Ramírez
75'
🔁Beto Da Silvaout: L. Ríos
75'
L. Ríos
84'
88'
Kelvin Sanchez
90+2'
⚽Jarlin Quinteroassist: Christian Velarde

Match stats — Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

54%Possession46%
24Shots8
12On target2
5Corners3
2.45xG0.66

Goals against chances

Deportivo Garcilaso4 from 2.45 xGmore than the chances were worth
Club Deportivo Los Chankas1 from 0.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1
  • 1P. ZubczukG
  • 2A. SalazarD
  • 19A. GómezD
  • 23X. MorenoD
  • 20A. RosellD
  • 8A. GonzálezM
  • 11F. ArancibiaM
  • 10P. LabrinM
  • 18C. RamosM
  • 30L. da SilvaM
  • 9F. CastelliF
Substitutes
  • 33S. VillacortaD
  • 35J. MendozaM
  • 31J. BarbieriG
  • 27A. AscuesM
  • 24C. OlivaresF
  • 22J. PortalesD
  • 17S. RamírezF
  • 7L. RíosF
  • 14C. TorrejónM
Coach: Lisandro Greppo
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 5-3-2
  • 1H. CamachoG
  • 18O. TakeuchiD
  • 33C. PimientaD
  • 2H. GonzálezD
  • 24G. RizzoD
  • 16A. ChávezD
  • 17C. VelardeM
  • 5J. PalominoM
  • 6A. AyarzaM
  • 10F. TorresF
  • 20M. TorresF
Substitutes
  • 4A. CamposM
  • 77F. EspinozaF
  • 26D. GonzálesD
  • 30M. KaufmanD
  • 7J. OspinaF
  • 12L. PretelG
  • 11J. QuinteroF
  • 27K. BarriosD
  • 15K. SánchezM
Coach: J. Balazar

Form going into Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Deportivo Garcilaso

Primera División

  • L2-4away to FBC Melgar17 October 2026

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Primera División

  • W2-1ADT16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Deportivo Garcilaso33167105035+1555
10Club Deportivo Los Chankas33139114052-1248

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  • 4 May 2026Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
  • 19 July 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 3–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
  • 10 February 2025Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–2 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
  • 29 September 2024Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
  • 29 April 2024Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División

Leading scorers: Deportivo Garcilaso and Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Deportivo Garcilaso

GoalsAssists

  • L. da Silva114
  • C. Olivares102

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

GoalsAssists

  • F. Torres95

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Garcilaso beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 4–1. The model had made a win for Deportivo Garcilaso its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Facundo Castelli 20' for Deportivo Garcilaso, Christopher Olivares 54' for Deportivo Garcilaso, Christopher Olivares 67' for Deportivo Garcilaso, Agustin Gonzalez 73' for Deportivo Garcilaso, Jarlin Quintero 90+2' for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. On expected goals it finished 2.45–0.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Garcilaso a 2.8% chance to finish in the top two: 3.7% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.7%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.