25 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima Primera División prediction & result

Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua
Referee: Edwin Ordonez
Full time0 – 1

Final score: UCV Moquegua 0-1 Alianza Lima.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% UCV Moquegua, 30% draw, 50% Alianza Lima — fair odds of 5.00, 3.33 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Alianza Lima at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

UCV Moquegua0%Draw2%Alianza Lima98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Jeferson Collazosout: Brayan Angulo
61'
🔁Nicolas Chavezout: A. Lecaros
62'
62'
🔁Gianfranco Chavezout: Cristian Carbajal
63'
🔁Kevin Quevedoout: Gaspar Gentile
Yorman Zapata
72'
72'
Fernando Gaibor
74'
🔁Federico Girottiout: Luis Ramos
74'
🔁J Garcíaout: Alan Martín Cantero
🔁Edgar Lastreout: Diego Ramírez
82'
86'
🔁Fernando Gaiborout: Jesús Castillo
87'
⚽Alan Martín Canteroassist: Jairo Vélez
89'
Pablo Adrián Guede Barriero
🔁Cristian Mejíaout: Y. López
90+1'

Match stats — UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima

42%Possession58%
10Shots20
1On target6
3Corners9
0.62xG2.11

Goals against chances

UCV Moquegua0 from 0.62 xGless than the chances were worth
Alianza Lima1 from 2.11 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. GradosG
  • 4A. PerlecheD
  • 13J. LojasD
  • 3C. EncisoD
  • 15N. AmasifuénD
  • 8C. MejíaM
  • 25R. ChipaoM
  • 7E. LastreM
  • 10N. ChávezM
  • 17Y. ZapataM
  • 90J. CollazosF
Substitutes
  • 14Claudio Guillermo Ramírez LlamoccaM
  • 11B. AnguloF
  • 16Allonso Alberto Dávila CárdenasF
  • 29R. FigueroaG
  • 30J. GrandaD
  • 24A. LecarosF
  • 88Y. LópezD
  • 22E. MontenegroD
  • 20D. RamírezM
Coach: José Soto
Alianza Lima 4-3-3
  • 1A. DuarteG
  • 17L. AdvínculaD
  • 6R. GarcésD
  • 32J. GarcíaD
  • 13M. HuamánD
  • 7F. GaiborM
  • 4G. ChávezM
  • 20J. VélezM
  • 27K. QuevedoF
  • 99F. GirottiF
  • 8E. CastilloF
Substitutes
  • 31C. CarbajalD
  • 11A. CanteroF
  • 29J. ArchimbaudM
  • 15J. CastilloM
  • 2N. DíazD
  • 25G. GentileF
  • 22C. NeiraM
  • 9L. RamosF
  • 12Á. de la CruzG
Coach: P. Guede

Form going into UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima

UCV Moquegua

Primera División

  • W1-0away to FC Cajamarca18 October 2026

Alianza Lima

Primera División

  • W3-1Atletico Grau18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16UCV Moquegua3379172748-2130
1Alianza Lima3320945424+3069

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima

  • 3 May 2026Alianza Lima 2–1 UCV MoqueguaPrimera División

Leading scorers: UCV Moquegua and Alianza Lima

UCV Moquegua

GoalsAssists

  • E. Lastre85

Alianza Lima

GoalsAssists

  • E. Castillo216

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Alianza Lima won 1–0 at UCV Moquegua. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Alianza Lima at 50%. The goal: Alan Martín Cantero 87' for Alianza Lima. On expected goals it finished 0.62–2.11.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave UCV Moquegua a 33.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 13.1% after a win, 29.5% after a draw, 40.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.3%, 7.3 points higher than before the match.

For Alianza Lima the question was the chance to finish top of the Primera Division: Tabla Anual, 98.4% going in: 99.6% after a win, 97.7% after a draw, 95.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.6%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.