24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Como vs Sassuolo Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
Referee: Davide Di Marco, Italy
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Como 2-0 Sassuolo.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Como, 25% draw, 20% Sassuolo — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Como at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Como99%Draw1%Sassuolo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Samuele Ricciout: Luis Milla
45'
🔁Martin Baturinaout: Jayden Addai
45'
🔁Willy Kambwalaout: Jacobo Ramón
45'
⚽Anastasios Douvikasassist: Maxence Caqueret
49'
⚽Anastasios Douvikasassist: Kaiki Bruno
60'
62'
🔁Rafael Obradorout: Josh Doig
62'
🔁Benjamin Dominguezout: Armand Lauriente
62'
🔁Nemanja Matićout: Luca Lipani
63'
Domenico Berardi
Yan Couto
65'
🔁Yan Coutoout: Ivan Smolcic
67'
74'
🔁Domenico Berardiout: Cristian Volpato
86'
🔁Vasilije Adzicout: Sebastiano Esposito
87'
Ignace Van der Brempt
🔁Lucas Da Cunhaout: Adrian Lahdo
89'
Luis Milla
90+1'

Match stats — Como vs Sassuolo

56%Possession44%
14Shots7
6On target0
6Corners4
1.69xG0.26

Goals against chances

Como2 from 1.69 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sassuolo0 from 0.26 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Como 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ButezG
  • 27Yan CoutoD
  • 53Willy Kambwala NdengushiD
  • 2M. KempfD
  • 16KaikiD
  • 21S. RicciM
  • 5M. PerroneM
  • 8M. CaqueretM
  • 7L. da CunhaM
  • 20M. BaturinaM
  • 9T. DouvikasF
Substitutes
  • 13A. DossenaD
  • 18E. GoldanigaD
  • 42J. AddaiF
  • 15A. LahdoM
  • 6Luis MillaM
  • 10N. PazM
  • 4Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
  • 97Robert SánchezG
  • 28I. SmolčićD
Coach: Cesc Fàbregas
Sassuolo 4-2-3-1
  • 80S. TuratiG
  • 20I. Van der BremptD
  • 15D. Ćaleta-CarD
  • 5Fali CandéD
  • 33Rafael ObradorD
  • 17Vasilije AdžićM
  • 18N. MatićM
  • 10D. BerardiM
  • 50D. BakolaM
  • 25B. DomínguezM
  • 9K. BowieF
Substitutes
  • 94S. EspositoF
  • 8A. GhionM
  • 35L. LipaniM
  • 49A. MurićG
  • 26C. OdenthalD
  • 77N. PieriniF
  • 12G. SatalinoG
  • 19L. SkjellerupF
  • 55I. SulemanaM
Coach: A. Aquilani

Form going into Como vs Sassuolo

Como

Serie A

  • W3-1away to Fiorentina18 October 2026

Sassuolo

Serie A

  • L2-4away to Frosinone16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Como117221810+823
17Sassuolo112271629-138

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Como vs Sassuolo

  • 17 April 2026Sassuolo 2–1 ComoSerie A
  • 28 November 2025Como 2–0 SassuoloSerie A
  • 24 September 2025Como 3–0 SassuoloCoppa Italia

Leading scorers: Como and Sassuolo

Como

GoalsAssists

  • T. Douvikas50

Sassuolo

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Como beat Sassuolo 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Como at 55%. The goals: Anastasios Douvikas 49' for Como, Anastasios Douvikas 60' for Como. On expected goals it finished 1.69–0.26.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Como a 51.8% chance to finish in the top four: 55.0% after a win, 48.8% after a draw, 43.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.0%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For Sassuolo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.1% going in: 4.7% after a win, 7.9% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.1%, 1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Como v Sassuolo has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 53% / 25% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is Como's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Como win55%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Sassuolo win20%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.