24 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

Necaxa vs FC Juarez Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Referee: Martin Molina Astorga
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Necaxa 1-1 FC Juarez.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Necaxa, 25% draw, 23% FC Juarez — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Necaxa at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Necaxa6%Draw91%FC Juarez3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Owen González
26'
🔁Javier Ruizout: Danny Leyva
45+2'
⚽Julián Carranza (pen)
45+7'
🔁Matias Espindolaout: Miguel Rodriguez
45'
🔁Carlos Vargasout: Mauro Zaleta
45'
45'
🔁Jesus Murilloout: Denzell Garcia
64'
🔁Guilherme Castilhoout: Luca Dupuy
🔁Lorenzo Faravelliout: Francisco Méndez
66'
🔁Julián Carranzaout: Miguel Pedroza
71'
Miguel Pedroza
76'
78'
🔁José Luis Rodríguezout: Ricardo Oliveira
Mauro Zaleta
81'
81'
Madson de Souza Silva
82'
⚽Luca Dupuyassist: Daniel Piña
86'
Oscar Estupiñan

Match stats — Necaxa vs FC Juarez

49%Possession51%
16Shots24
7On target5
7Corners5
2.18xG1.81

Goals against chances

Necaxa1 from 2.18 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Juarez1 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Necaxa 4-1-4-1
  • 181Javier OrantesG
  • 33R. MartínezD
  • 5Kaiky NavesD
  • 3A. OliverosD
  • 88C. VargasD
  • 210Joshua Alejandro Palacios PulidoM
  • 13Owen de Jesús González OjedaM
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 21M. EspíndolaM
  • 10J. RuizM
  • 9J. CarranzaF
Substitutes
  • 14M. ZaletaM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 208Leonardo Abimael Becerra RamosM
  • 1C. AndradeG
  • 2E. MartínezD
  • 20F. MéndezD
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 27M. PedrozaF
  • 99M. RodríguezM
Coach: Juan Reynoso
FC Juarez 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. JuradoG
  • 33F. NevárezD
  • 3J. MurilloD
  • 2G. SepúlvedaD
  • 26D. PiñaD
  • 183L. SilvaM
  • 13Rodrigo DouradoM
  • 9MadsonM
  • 8Guilherme CastilhoM
  • 11J. RodríguezM
  • 19Ó. EstupiñánF
Substitutes
  • 23H. OrtegaD
  • 21RicardinhoM
  • 250B. MolinaM
  • 4A. MayorgaD
  • 17L. Martínez DupuyF
  • 14E. LópezD
  • 5D. GarcíaM
  • 201J. CarmonaM
  • 27Guillermo RuizG
Coach: T. Campos

Form going into Necaxa vs FC Juarez

Necaxa

Liga MX

  • L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas21 October 2026
  • L0-2Atlas17 October 2026

FC Juarez

Liga MX

  • L0-1Atlante FC21 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Cruz Azul18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Necaxa163491728-1113
18FC Juarez1632111334-2111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Necaxa

FC Juarez and Necaxa have met 7 times in the records we hold, Necaxa has won 2 of them to FC Juarez's 0, with 5 drawn.

The record

They drew 1–1 at Necaxa on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
FC Juarez052812
Necaxa250128

Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Liga MX    Necaxa 1–1 FC Juarez
  • 15 Feb 2026
    Liga MX    FC Juarez 1–2 Necaxa
  • 13 Sep 2025
    Liga MX    Necaxa 1–1 FC Juarez
  • 16 Apr 2025
    Liga MX    FC Juarez 2–2 Necaxa
  • 24 Aug 2024
    Liga MX    Necaxa 3–0 FC Juarez
  • 4 Feb 2024
    Liga MX    FC Juarez 2–2 Necaxa
  • 16 Sep 2023
    Liga MX    Necaxa 1–1 FC Juarez

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, FC Juarez's attack rates 3% above Necaxa's, and Necaxa concede 12% fewer than FC Juarez. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
FC Juarez0.611.63
Necaxa0.591.43

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Necaxa and FC Juarez

Necaxa

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carranza72

FC Juarez

GoalsAssists

  • Ó. Estupiñán80

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Necaxa and FC Juarez drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Necaxa at 52% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Owen González 26' for Necaxa, Luca Dupuy 82' for FC Juarez. On expected goals it finished 2.18–1.81.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Necaxa a 90.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 86.5% after a win, 95.6% after a draw, 98.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 95.6%, 5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Necaxa v FC Juarez has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 49% / 25% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is Necaxa's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Necaxa win52%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%=
  3. FC Juarez win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.