24 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Lazio vs Parma Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee: Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Lazio 2-1 Parma.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Lazio, 29% draw, 16% Parma — fair odds of 1.82, 3.45 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Lazio at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Oliver Provstgaard
30'
38'
Vincent Sierro
🔁Oliver Provstgaardout: Diogo Leite
45'
45'
🔁Vincent Sierroout: Adrián Bernabé García
⚽Kenneth Taylor
50'
⚽Diego Carlos (OG)
58'
63'
🔁Christian Ordóñezout: Simone Lontani
🔁Kenneth Taylorout: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
71'
72'
🔁Diego Carlosout: Matija Frigan
🔁Gustav Isaksenout: Manuel Lazzari
77'
🔁Mattia Zaccagniout: Alfonso Pedraza
77'
78'
🔁José David Romeroout: Giovanni Fabbian
90+5'
⚽Simone Lontaniassist: Giovanni Fabbian

Match stats — Lazio vs Parma

68%Possession32%
21Shots10
5On target4
8Corners3
1.82xG0.87

Goals against chances

Lazio2 from 1.82 xGabout what the chances were worth
Parma1 from 0.87 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lazio 4-3-3
  • 35C. MandasG
  • 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
  • 37J. ŠutaloD
  • 25O. ProvstgaardD
  • 17Nuno TavaresD
  • 16D. FrattesiM
  • 21R. BelahyaneM
  • 24K. TaylorM
  • 11G. IsaksenF
  • 14T. NoslinF
  • 10M. ZaccagniF
Substitutes
  • 63F. SerraF
  • 47D. RenzettiG
  • 28A. PrzyborekM
  • 3L. PellegriniD
  • 23PedrazaD
  • 40E. MottaG
  • 2Diogo LeiteD
  • 29M. LazzariM
  • 71V. FarcomeniM
Coach: G. Gattuso
Parma 5-3-2
  • 40E. CorviG
  • 15E. Del PratoD
  • 34Diego CarlosD
  • 37M. TroiloD
  • 72D. DrobnicD
  • 14E. ValeriD
  • 16M. KeitaM
  • 4V. SierroM
  • 32C. OrdoñezM
  • 19E. TouréF
  • 9D. RomeroF
Substitutes
  • 29F. CarboniD
  • 3A. N'DiayeD
  • 8B. CremaschiM
  • 30G. DaffaraG
  • 25T. De MartisF
  • 7Ousmane DialloF
  • 80G. FabbianM
  • 20M. FriganF
  • 22S. GhidottiG
Coach: A. Gilardino

Form going into Lazio vs Parma

Lazio

Serie A

  • W3-0away to Juventus18 October 2026

Parma

Serie A

  • L0-3Torino19 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Lazio11920259+1629
16Parma11227917-88

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lazio vs Parma

Lazio and Parma have met 7 times in the records we hold, Lazio has won 4 of them to Parma's 1, with 2 drawn.

The record

Lazio won the last one 2–1 on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Lazio421108
Parma124810

Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Serie A    Lazio 2–1 Parma
  • 4 Apr 2026
    Serie A    Lazio 1–1 Parma
  • 13 Dec 2025
    Serie A    Parma 0–1 Lazio
  • 28 Apr 2025
    Serie A    Lazio 2–2 Parma
  • 1 Dec 2024
    Serie A    Parma 3–1 Lazio
  • 12 May 2021
    Serie A    Lazio 1–0 Parma
  • 21 Jan 2021
    Coppa Italia    Lazio 2–1 Parma

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Lazio's attack rates 79% above Parma's, and Lazio concede 16% fewer than Parma. That gives Lazio the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Lazio1.220.78
Parma0.680.93

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Lazio and Parma

Lazio

GoalsAssists

  • T. Noslin44
  • G. Isaksen41
  • D. Frattesi40

Parma

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lazio beat Parma 2–1. The model had made a win for Lazio its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kenneth Taylor 50' for Lazio, Diego Carlos (own goal) 58' for Lazio, Simone Lontani 90+5' for Parma. On expected goals it finished 1.82–0.87.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lazio a 37.2% chance to finish in the top four: 40.9% after a win, 33.5% after a draw, 30.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.9%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

For Parma the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 60.6% going in: 52.6% after a win, 58.5% after a draw, 64.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.0%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lazio v Parma has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 45% / 32% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 55% / 29% / 16%: the biggest move is Lazio's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Lazio win55%▲ +10
  2. Draw29%▼ −3
  3. Parma win16%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.