Napoli vs AS Roma Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Napoli 3-3 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Napoli, 30% draw, 43% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.70, 3.33 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
AS Roma at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Napoli vs AS Roma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. MeretG
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 5B. BadiashileD
- 17M. OliveraD
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
- 8S. McTominayM
- 21M. PolitanoF
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 70N. LangF
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 14N. ContiniG
- 6B. GilmourM
- 23GiovaneF
- 68S. LobotkaM
- 20L. LuccaF
- 35Luca MarianucciD
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 37L. SpinazzolaD
- 95P. GolliniG
- 23G. ManciniD
- 5E. NdickaD
- 22HermosoD
- 2D. RenschM
- 15M. de RoonM
- 4B. CristanteM
- 61N. PisilliM
- 43WesleyM
- 18M. SouléF
- 14D. MalenF
- 32D. VásquezG
- 20N. MolinaD
- 77E. LulliD
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 63Alessandro Di NunzioM
- 70G. De MarziG
- 9S. CastroF
- 78Mandjou CamaraF
Form going into Napoli vs AS Roma
Napoli
Serie A
- L0-1away to Venezia17 October 2026
AS Roma
Serie A
- W2-0Genoa17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Napoli
AS Roma and Napoli have met 7 times in the records we hold, Napoli has won 2 of them to AS Roma's 1, with 4 drawn.
The record
They drew 3–3 at Napoli on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| Napoli | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Serie ANapoli 3–3 AS Roma - 15 Feb 2026
Serie ANapoli 2–2 AS Roma - 30 Nov 2025
Serie AAS Roma 0–1 Napoli - 2 Feb 2025
Serie AAS Roma 1–1 Napoli - 24 Nov 2024
Serie ANapoli 1–0 AS Roma - 28 Apr 2024
Serie ANapoli 2–2 AS Roma - 23 Dec 2023
Serie AAS Roma 2–0 Napoli
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, AS Roma's attack rates 34% above Napoli's, and AS Roma concede 9% fewer than Napoli. That gives AS Roma the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Napoli and AS Roma
Napoli
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen82
- Rodrigo Mora40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Napoli and AS Roma drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for AS Roma at 43% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Frank Anguissa 28' for Napoli, Scott McTominay 48' for Napoli, Matias Soule 69' for AS Roma, Leonardo Balerdi 74' for AS Roma, Scott McTominay 83' for Napoli, Leonardo Balerdi 89' for AS Roma. Sent off: Massimiliano Allegri (Napoli) 90'. On expected goals it finished 2.42–1.92.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Napoli a 26.9% chance to finish in the top four: 32.4% after a win, 27.4% after a draw, 23.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 27.4%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.
For AS Roma the question was the chance to win the league, 42.7% going in: 47.0% after a win, 40.6% after a draw, 37.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 40.6%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Napoli v AS Roma has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 28% / 28% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 27% / 30% / 43%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- Napoli win27%▼ −1
- Draw30%▲ +2
- AS Roma win43%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.