Công An Nhân Dân vs Kyoto Sanga AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Công An Nhân Dân 0-0 Kyoto Sanga.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Công An Nhân Dân, 27% draw, 43% Kyoto Sanga — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Kyoto Sanga at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Công An Nhân Dân vs Kyoto Sanga
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. NguyenG
- 38A. LeygleyD
- 68Bùi Hoàng Việt AnhD
- 5Đoàn Văn HậuD
- 88Lê Văn ĐôM
- 55Frans PutrosM
- 14Damià SabaterM
- 7J. PendantM
- 72Alan GrafiteF
- 90B. PereaF
- 10Léo ArturF
- 15Bui Xuan ThinhM
- 18Đinh Thanh BìnhF
- 26Ha Van PhuongD
- 12Hoang Van ToanD
- 11Lê Phạm Thành LongM
- 9Nguyen Dinh BacF
- 30Y Eli NiêG
- 4Phan Ngọc TínD
- 23Vu Thanh VinhG
- 90HallsG
- 40Y. IshidaD
- 43WevertonD
- 15K. NagataD
- 44K. SatoM
- 24H. MorookaM
- 6João PedroM
- 62T. ShichiM
- 48R. NakanoM
- 38EvertonM
- 17Alex NeguebaF
- 25Yoon Sung-JunM
- 5H. TawiahD
- 50Y. SuzukiD
- 19David Da Silva CostaF
- 29Ko SakaiF
- 9Rafael EliasF
- 1G. OtaG
- 7M. OkugawaM
- 93S. NagasawaF
Form going into Công An Nhân Dân vs Kyoto Sanga
Công An Nhân Dân
AFC Champions League Elite
- W3-2away to SHANGHAI SIPG27 October 2026
- L0-1Kashima13 October 2026
- L1-4away to Gamba Osaka15 September 2026
Kyoto Sanga
AFC Champions League Elite
- W5-2Newcastle Jets27 October 2026
- W1-0Ratchaburi13 October 2026
- L0-1away to Daejeon Citizen15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Công An Nhân Dân | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 6 | Kyoto Sanga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Công An Nhân Dân and Kyoto Sanga
Công An Nhân Dân
GoalsAssists
- B. Perea31
Kyoto Sanga
GoalsAssists
- Alex Negueba21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Công An Nhân Dân and Kyoto Sanga drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Kyoto Sanga at 43% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.52–0.76.
How the call on Công An Nhân Dân v Kyoto Sanga has moved
First published on 20 Oct at 40% / 26% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 30% / 27% / 43%: the biggest move is Công An Nhân Dân's chance of winning, down 10 points.
- Công An Nhân Dân win30%▼ −10
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Kyoto Sanga win43%▲ +9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.