12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires
Referee: Sebastian Nicolas Martinez
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Lanus 2-0 Velez Sarsfield.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lanus, 32% draw, 27% Velez Sarsfield — fair odds of 2.44, 3.13 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lanus at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Lucas Robertone
19'
Thiago Aguirre
34'
Rodrigo Aliendro
57'
🔁Thiago Aguirreout: Diego Valdés
⚽Sasha Julian Marcichassist: Lucas Agustín Besozzi
59'
🔁Allan Steven Wlk Duréout: Yoshan Valois
67'
🔁Lucas Agustín Besozziout: Matías Sepúlveda
67'
Carlos Izquierdoz
73'
74'
🔁Matias Ariasout: Dilan Godoy
74'
🔁Juan Cruz Policellaout: Simón Escobar
🔁Marcelino Morenoout: Ramiro Carrera
81'
🔁Eduardo Salvioout: Gonzalo Thomás Lobos
81'
Ramiro Carrera
88'
90+1'
🔁Lucas Robertoneout: Luca Feler
90+1'
🔁Elías Gómezout: Lautaro Piola
🔁Diego Agustín Medinaout: Gonzalo German Perez Corbalan
90+4'
⚽Tomás Marchiori (OG)
90+5'

Match stats — Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

48%Possession52%
16Shots10
6On target3
5Corners6
1.65xG0.62

Goals against chances

Lanus2 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
Velez Sarsfield0 from 0.62 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lanus 4-2-3-1
  • 26N. LosadaG
  • 33T. GuidaraD
  • 24C. IzquierdozD
  • 13J. CanaleD
  • 6S. MarcichD
  • 17A. MedinaM
  • 30A. CardozoM
  • 77L. BesozziM
  • 10M. MorenoM
  • 11E. SalvioM
  • 20A. WlkF
Substitutes
  • 23R. CarreraM
  • 35R. De JesúsD
  • 15R. LoaizaM
  • 42G. LobosF
  • 3N. MorgantiniD
  • 1F. PetroliG
  • 5F. PeñaM
  • 4G. PérezD
  • 16M. SepúlvedaM
Coach: M. Pellegrino
Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. MarchioriG
  • 4J. GarcíaD
  • 32Thiago SilveorD
  • 16L. MagallánD
  • 3Elías GómezD
  • 29R. AliendroM
  • 8L. RobertoneM
  • 35M. AriasM
  • 37J. PolicellaM
  • 39T. AguirreM
  • 77R. MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 46Ulises PiedrabuenaD
  • 47A. PereyraD
  • 21Jano GordonD
  • 15D. GodoyF
  • 48Luca FelerM
  • 18S. EscobarD
  • 19L. CristaldoD
  • 5C. BaezaM
  • 30L. PiolaF
Coach: Guillermo Barros Schelotto

Form going into Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

Lanus

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Newell's Old Boys3 October 2026
  • W2-1Estudiantes La Plata22 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Deportivo Riestra14 September 2026
  • W1-0Defensa Y Justicia6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Boca Juniors29 August 2026

Velez Sarsfield

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Platense5 October 2026
  • W3-2Tigre21 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys11 September 2026
  • W1-0Estudiantes La Plata6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Velez Sarsfield went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Lanus167541912+726
3Velez Sarsfield167722517+828

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

  • 21 March 2026Velez Sarsfield 0–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 31 August 2025Velez Sarsfield 3–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 22 May 2025Lanus 2–0 Velez SarsfieldCopa Argentina
  • 22 February 2025Lanus 0–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 November 2024Velez Sarsfield 0–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield record →

Leading scorers: Lanus and Velez Sarsfield

Lanus

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Velez Sarsfield

GoalsAssists

  • R. Martínez132

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lanus beat Velez Sarsfield 2–0. The model had made a win for Lanus its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Sasha Julian Marcich 59' for Lanus, Tomás Marchiori (own goal) 90+5' for Lanus. On expected goals it finished 1.65–0.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lanus a 30.8% chance to finish in the top four: 46.5% after a win, 21.7% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.5%, 15.7 points higher than before the match.

For Velez Sarsfield the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 74.7% going in: 93.6% after a win, 79.2% after a draw, 62.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.2%, 12.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lanus v Velez Sarsfield has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 38% / 32% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 41% / 32% / 27%: the biggest move is Lanus's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Lanus win41%▲ +3
  2. Draw32%=
  3. Velez Sarsfield win27%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.