22 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Sporting CP vs Alverca Primeira Liga prediction & result

Lisbon
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Sporting CP 3-1 Alverca.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% Sporting CP, 19% draw, 13% Alverca — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sporting CP at 68% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Araujo
2'
16'
Yaya Bojang
Geny Catamo
22'
39'
Davy Gui
⚽Matheus Mendes (OG)
55'
56'
🔁V. Semedoout: S. J. Merheg
56'
🔁Rayan Lucasout: A. Vidigal
⚽L. Suarezassist: G. Catamo
60'
66'
🔁Chissumbaout: M. Essimi
🔁G. Catamoout: Luis Guilherme
68'
🔁F. Goncalvesout: N. Irankunda
68'
🔁Z. Debastout: E. Quaresma
75'
🔁L. Suarezout: R. Nel
75'
75'
🔁Ian Luccasout: V. Moreira
75'
🔁D. Guiout: Z. Kassary
🔁R. Zalazarout: Pedro Lima
88'
88'
⚽Figueiredoassist: V. Moreira

Match stats — Sporting CP vs Alverca

69%Possession31%
5Shots3
2On target1
1Corners0
0.24xG0.04

Goals against chances

Sporting CP3 from 0.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
Alverca1 from 0.04 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. SilvaG
  • 22I. FresnedaD
  • 6Z. DebastD
  • 55I. BaD
  • 20M. AraujoD
  • 5S. AltimiraM
  • 77I. DoumbiaM
  • 10G. CatamoM
  • 58F. GoncalvesM
  • 17R. ZalazarM
  • 97L. SuarezF
Substitutes
  • 12J. VirginiaG
  • 25G. InacioD
  • 72E. QuaresmaD
  • 50R. DiasD
  • 13G. VagiannidisD
  • 4S. AndersenM
  • 21Pedro LimaM
  • 73E. FelicissimoM
  • 9R. NelF
Coach: Rui Borges
Alverca 3-4-2-1
  • 31Matheus MendesG
  • 14S. BaseyaD
  • 4Y. BojangD
  • 12I. JamesD
  • 2N. TouaiziM
  • 6D. GuiM
  • 35Rayan LucasM
  • 55ChissumbaM
  • 25Ian LuccasF
  • 22FigueiredoF
  • 9V. SemedoF
Substitutes
  • 91Jhonatan LuizG
  • 23A. PauloG
  • 21S. GomezD
  • 20D. SpencerD
  • 27T. TamaritF
  • 8V. MoreiraM
  • 15I. JulianD
  • 18Z. KassaryM
  • 19M. EssimiF
Coach: Sergio Ferreira

Form going into Sporting CP vs Alverca

Sporting CP

  • W3-2Vitória SC14 August 2026

Alverca

  • D2-2Estrela15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Sporting CP6420156+914
12Alverca6123811-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Alverca

  • 22 August 2026Sporting CP 3–1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
  • 22 March 2026Alverca 1–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 31 October 2025Sporting CP 2–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
  • 28 October 2025Sporting CP 5–1 AlvercaTaça da Liga
  • 17 October 2019Alverca 2–0 Sporting CPTaça de Portugal

Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Alverca

Sporting CP

  • L. Suárez5 goals1 assists
  • Flávio Gonçalves3 goals1 assists
  • F. Ioannidis2 goals2 assists

Alverca

  • Vivaldo Semedo2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.