Maritimo vs Academico Viseu Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Maritimo 2-2 Academico Viseu.
Before kick-off the model made it 77% Maritimo, 14% draw, 9% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 1.30, 7.14 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maritimo at 77% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maritimo vs Academico Viseu
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 18Vladan DanilovićM
- 11Simo BouzaidiM
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 10Martín TejónM
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 30Francisco VieitesG
- 22Gábor SzalaiD
- 16Francisco SilvaM
- 68Nelio BatistaM
- 21Ibrahim AlaniM
- 66Israel AyumaM
- 35Bryan LimbombeF
- 15Tomás TavaresD
- 98EwertonG
- 75RobinhoD
- 41Anthony CorreiaD
- 2Nikolaos MichelisD
- 5Pedro BarcelosD
- 8Cihan KahramanM
- 6André CeitilM
- 14Soufiane MesseguemM
- 31João GuilhermeF
- 33André ClóvisF
- 47Lorougnon GohiF
- 58Matheus SampaioG
- 1Marcos LavínG
- 57Gu CostaD
- 44Rúben PereiraD
- 7Luís SilvaM
- 29Andro BabićM
- 21Tomás DomingosD
- 22Nils MortimerF
- 10Álvaro ZamoraF
Form going into Maritimo vs Academico Viseu
Maritimo
- W2-1away to Famalicao16 August 2026
Academico Viseu
- L0-1Santa Clara15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Maritimo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Academico Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Academico Viseu
- 22 August 2026Maritimo 2–2 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
- 1 March 2026Academico Viseu 3–1 MaritimoSegunda Liga
- 3 October 2025Maritimo 2–2 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 9 March 2025Maritimo 1–1 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 13 October 2024Academico Viseu 0–2 MaritimoSegunda Liga
- 19 May 2024Academico Viseu 2–2 MaritimoSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Maritimo and Academico Viseu
Maritimo
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Academico Viseu
- André Clóvis2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.