16 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Çorum FK vs Rizespor Süper Lig prediction & result

Corum Stadyumu, Corum
Referee: D. Celik
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Çorum FK 2-1 Rizespor.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Çorum FK, 22% draw, 22% Rizespor — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Çorum FK at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Çorum FK96%Draw4%Rizespor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Z. Ariss
🔁A. Borzaout: A. Sengul
25'
B. Ozdemir
27'
32'
⚽Q. Laci
⚽C. Under
38'
🔁M. Diomandeout: Y. Ramadani
46'
61'
🔁V. Mihailaout: E. Bulut
🔁J. Ramirezout: Y. Moukoko
72'
76'
🔁I. Olawoyinout: M. Diakite
76'
🔁A. Soweout: G. Borrelli
76'
🔁A. Mebudeout: I. Doicaru
🔁C. Underout: E. Mahmic
78'
🔁B. Ozdemirout: M. Karlsbakk
78'
⚽Y. Moukokoassist: A. Kyziridis
80'
81'
M. Sagnan
G. Sazdagi
83'
83'
🔁Q. Laciout: D. Varesanovic

Match stats — Çorum FK vs Rizespor

51%Possession49%
10Shots15
4On target4
2Corners8
0.66xG0.81

Goals against chances

Çorum FK2 from 0.66 xGmore than the chances were worth
Rizespor1 from 0.81 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Çorum FK 3-4-3
  • 1Marcos FelipeG
  • 5Alexandre PenetraD
  • 2Çağlar SöyüncüD
  • 6Hrvoje SmolčićD
  • 11Gökhan SazdağıM
  • 3Berat ÖzdemirM
  • 10Mohammed DiomandeM
  • 24Andrei BorzaM
  • 7Cengiz ÜnderF
  • 19Jesús RamírezF
  • 89Alexandros KyziridisF
Substitutes
  • 15Arda ŞengülD
  • 20Ylber RamadaniM
  • 14Youssoufa MoukokoF
  • 8Markus KarlsbakkM
  • 26Ermin MahmićM
  • 18Erhan ErentürkG
  • 88Cemali SertelD
  • 30Ahmed IldızM
  • 21Göktan GürpüzM
Rizespor 4-1-4-1
  • 75Yahia FofanaG
  • 54Mithat PalaD
  • 21Siaka BakayokoD
  • 93Modibo SagnanD
  • 17Zakaria ArissD
  • 14Taylan AntalyalıM
  • 11Adedire MebudeM
  • 10Ibrahim OlawoyinM
  • 20Qazim LaciM
  • 7Valentin MihăilăM
  • 9Ali SoweF
Substitutes
  • 99Emrecan BulutF
  • 6Moussa DiakitéM
  • 29Gennaro BorrelliF
  • 79Iustin DoicaruF
  • 8Dal VarešanovićM
  • 30Zafer GörgenG
  • 97Efe DoğanG
  • 5Tayyip Talha SanuçD
  • 37Taha ŞahinD

Form going into Çorum FK vs Rizespor

Çorum FK

Süper Lig

  • W3-0away to Gaziantep FK11 October 2026

Rizespor

Süper Lig

  • L0-3Fenerbahçe10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Çorum FK115152121016
11Rizespor114251316-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Çorum FK and Rizespor

Çorum FK

GoalsAssists

  • C. Ramírez61
  • A. Kyziridis44
  • C. Ünder42

Rizespor

GoalsAssists

  • A. Sowe40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Çorum FK beat Rizespor 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Çorum FK at 56%. The goals: Q. Laci 32' for Rizespor, C. Under 38' for Çorum FK, Y. Moukoko 80' for Çorum FK. On expected goals it finished 0.66–0.81.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Çorum FK a 15.1% chance to finish in the top four: 16.6% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.6%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

For Rizespor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.3% going in: 7.8% after a win, 11.2% after a draw, 13.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.6%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Çorum FK v Rizespor has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 56% / 22% / 22%: the biggest move is Çorum FK's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Çorum FK win56%▲ +11
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. Rizespor win22%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.