16 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II 3. Liga prediction & result

Cologne
Referee: Henry Schroder, Germany
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Fortuna Köln 0-1 Stuttgart II.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Fortuna Köln, 30% draw, 29% Stuttgart II — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fortuna Köln at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fortuna Köln0%Draw3%Stuttgart II97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
Tim van der Leij
45'
🔁Enis Redzepiout: A. Janjic
56'
Jarzinho Malanga
🔁Nico Thierout: Romeo Aigbekaen
57'
🔁Cedric Harenbrockout: Adrian Stanilewicz
57'
58'
Veit Stange
61'
Joyeux Masanka Bungi
70'
🔁Jarzinho Malangaout: Jordan Majchrzak
70'
🔁Veit Stangeout: Maximilian Tobias Herwerth
🔁Enzo Wirtzout: Jannik Mause
70'
Tom Geerkens
73'
Tom Geerkens
75'
80'
⚽Maximilian Tobias Herwerthassist: Nicolás Sessa
81'
🔁Tim van der Leijout: Oliver Rölke
🔁Kevin Krummeout: Hamadi Al Ghaddioui
84'
84'
A. Janjic
90'
🔁Joyeux Masanka Bungi out: Peter Reinhardt
90+5'
Oliver Rölke

Match stats — Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II

46%Possession54%
0On target0

Line-ups

Fortuna Köln 4-3-3
  • 1L. WinklerG
  • 2Kevin KrummeD
  • 15David Haider Kamm Al-AzzaweD
  • 5Seymour FungerD
  • 3M. FischerD
  • 38Bennit BrögerM
  • 11G. StrauchM
  • 6T. GeerkensM
  • 9E. WirtzF
  • 14C. HarenbrockF
  • 7N. ThierF
Substitutes
  • 30Romeo AigbekaenF
  • 18H. Al GhaddiouiF
  • 19T. BornemannF
  • 10R. GarcíaF
  • 37J. MauseF
  • 23D. SavicM
  • 20A. StanilewiczM
  • 31Neo TelleD
  • 25B. ZichG
Coach: M. Mink
Stuttgart II 4-4-2
  • 1Jerik von der FelsenG
  • 31V. StangeD
  • 6A. GroißD
  • 29D. NothnagelD
  • 24Joyeux Masanka BungiD
  • 7L. PennaM
  • 10N. SessaM
  • 18J. LuersM
  • 27Jarzinho Ataide Adriano de Nascimento MalangaM
  • 39E. RedzepiF
  • 9T. van der LeijF
Substitutes
  • 40P. ReinhardtD
  • 37David PreuD
  • 30J. MajchrzakF
  • 17A. JanjicD
  • 4Maximilian Tobias HerwerthD
  • 11Oliver RölkeF
  • 22J. BockG
Coach: N. Willig

Form going into Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II

Fortuna Köln

3. Liga

  • L0-2away to Rot-Weiß Essen13 October 2026

Stuttgart II

3. Liga

  • W3-2Hoffenheim II13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Fortuna Köln132471016-610
12Stuttgart II135352223-118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II

  • 12 March 2016Fortuna Köln 1–3 Stuttgart II3. Liga
  • 27 September 2015Stuttgart II 3–0 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
  • 4 April 2015Fortuna Köln 0–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
  • 28 September 2014Stuttgart II 3–1 Fortuna Köln3. Liga

Leading scorers: Fortuna Köln and Stuttgart II

Fortuna Köln

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Stuttgart II

GoalsAssists

  • T. van der Leij40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stuttgart II won 1–0 at Fortuna Köln. The model had leaned towards a win for Fortuna Köln at 41% and given a win for Stuttgart II 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Maximilian Tobias Herwerth 80' for Stuttgart II. Sent off: Tom Geerkens (Fortuna Köln) 75'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortuna Köln a 18.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.7% after a win, 19.0% after a draw, 24.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.8%, 6.4 points higher than before the match.

For Stuttgart II the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 20.7% going in: 14.0% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 24.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.0%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart II has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Fortuna Köln's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Fortuna Köln win41%▼ −4
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. Stuttgart II win29%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.