Aston Villa vs Manchester City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Aston Villa, 24% draw, 51% Manchester City — fair odds of 4.00, 4.17 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Manchester City at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 35João GomesM
- 47Alysson EdwardM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 39Brian MadjoF
- 19I. MbayeF
- 53George HemmingsM
- 27L. GoretzkaM
- 26L. BogardeM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 5T. MingsD
- 40M. BizotG
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 5E. AndersonM
- 17E. FernándezM
- 7I. NdiayeM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 11J. DokuM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 47P. FodenM
- 56R. McAidooF
- 28G. RulliG
- 21R. Aït-NouriD
- 22Vitor NunesD
- 33N. O'ReillyD
- 82R. LewisD
- 8M. KovačićM
- 32A. BouaddiM
Form going into Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Aston Villa
Premier League
- W1-0away to Newcastle17 October 2026
- D2-2Brentford10 October 2026
Manchester City
Premier League
- W3-2Ipswich17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Liverpool11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Aston Villa and Manchester City have met 7 times in the records we hold, Aston Villa has won 5 of them to Manchester City's 2.
The record
Aston Villa won the last one 2–1 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| Manchester City | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueAston Villa 2–1 Manchester City - 24 May 2026
Premier LeagueManchester City 1–2 Aston Villa - 26 Oct 2025
Premier LeagueAston Villa 1–0 Manchester City - 22 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueManchester City 2–1 Aston Villa - 21 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueAston Villa 2–1 Manchester City - 3 Apr 2024
Premier LeagueManchester City 4–1 Aston Villa - 6 Dec 2023
Premier LeagueAston Villa 1–0 Manchester City
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Manchester City's attack rates 13% above Aston Villa's, and Manchester City concede 22% fewer than Aston Villa. That gives Manchester City the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.36 | 0.97 |
| Manchester City | 1.54 | 0.76 |
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Manchester City
Aston Villa
GoalsAssists
- N. Jackson61
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland90
- R. Cherki52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aston Villa beat Manchester City 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Manchester City at 51% and given a win for Aston Villa 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nicolas Jackson 6' for Aston Villa, Erling Haaland 52' for Manchester City, Nicolas Jackson 60' for Aston Villa. On expected goals it finished 0.64–1.81.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aston Villa a 13.4% chance to finish in the top four: 17.5% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 11.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.5%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
For Manchester City the question was the chance to win the league, 57.3% going in: 61.6% after a win, 53.8% after a draw, 49.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.6%, 7.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.