Marseille vs Paris FC Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Marseille 2-3 Paris FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Marseille, 28% draw, 38% Paris FC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Paris FC at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Marseille vs Paris FC
Line-ups
- 1J. de LangeG
- 22T. WeahD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 33EmersonD
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 77A. HaritM
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 7A. GomesM
- 14Igor PaixãoM
- 9A. GouiriF
- 43T. MmadiF
- 18Bamo MeiteD
- 11N. MaupayF
- 25U. GarciaD
- 13D. CorneliusD
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 29F. MoumbagnaF
- 92T. VermotG
- 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
- 1K. TrappG
- 17A. CamaraD
- 31S. CherguiD
- 42D. CoppolaD
- 14H. TraoréD
- 15L. KoleoshoD
- 10I. KebbalM
- 20M. LopezM
- 33P. Lees-MelouM
- 7P. PagisM
- 9L. SinayokoF
- 8E. ZabiM
- 25Y. KoréD
- 11J. KrassoF
- 4V. MarchettiM
- 23R. MatondoM
- 5M. MbowD
- 16O. NkambadioG
- 27M. SimonF
- 18O. SissokoF
Form going into Marseille vs Paris FC
Marseille
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
- W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026
Paris FC
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Nice30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Estac Troyes22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Marseille vs Paris FC
- 31 January 2026Paris FC 2–2 MarseilleLigue 1
- 23 August 2025Marseille 5–2 Paris FCLigue 1
Leading scorers: Marseille and Paris FC
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri73
- A. Harit31
Paris FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Sinayoko95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Paris FC won 3–2 at Marseille. The model had made a win for Paris FC its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lassine Sinayoko 1' for Paris FC, Amine Gouiri 8' for Marseille, Lassine Sinayoko 19' for Paris FC, Amine Gouiri 53' for Marseille, Lassine Sinayoko (penalty) 86' for Paris FC.