6 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Marseille vs Paris FC Ligue 1 prediction & result

Marseille
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Marseille 2-3 Paris FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Marseille, 28% draw, 38% Paris FC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Paris FC at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Marseille0%Draw4%Paris FC96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Lassine Sinayokoassist: Luca Koleosho
⚽Amine Gouiri
8'
19'
⚽Lassine Sinayokoassist: Pablo Pagis
⚽Amine Gouiriassist: Amine Harit
53'
64'
🔁Pablo Pagisout: Rudy Matondo
65'
Rudy Matondo
🔁Igor Paixãoout: Tadjidine Mmadi
72'
🔁Angel Gomesout: Keyliane Abdallah
73'
🔁Nayef Aguerdout: Derek Cornelius
73'
77'
🔁Luca Koleoshoout: Moses Simon
77'
🔁Ilan Kebbalout: Patrick Zabi
83'
•Moses Simon
86'
⚽Lassine Sinayoko (pen)
87'
Lassine Sinayoko
90+1'
🔁Maxime Lópezout: Moustapha Mbow
90+1'
🔁Lassine Sinayokoout: Omar Sissoko
🔁Emerson Palmieriout: Ulisses Garcia
90+1'
🔁Himad Abdelliout: Faris Moumbagna
90+1'

Match stats — Marseille vs Paris FC

60%Possession40%
14Shots18
5On target7
5Corners4

Line-ups

Marseille 4-1-4-1
  • 1J. de LangeG
  • 22T. WeahD
  • 4C. Egan-RileyD
  • 21N. AguerdD
  • 33EmersonD
  • 23P. HøjbjergM
  • 77A. HaritM
  • 8H. AbdelliM
  • 7A. GomesM
  • 14Igor PaixãoM
  • 9A. GouiriF
Substitutes
  • 43T. MmadiF
  • 18Bamo MeiteD
  • 11N. MaupayF
  • 25U. GarciaD
  • 13D. CorneliusD
  • 48K. AbdallahF
  • 29F. MoumbagnaF
  • 92T. VermotG
  • 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
Coach: Bruno Genesio
Paris FC 5-4-1
  • 1K. TrappG
  • 17A. CamaraD
  • 31S. CherguiD
  • 42D. CoppolaD
  • 14H. TraoréD
  • 15L. KoleoshoD
  • 10I. KebbalM
  • 20M. LopezM
  • 33P. Lees-MelouM
  • 7P. PagisM
  • 9L. SinayokoF
Substitutes
  • 8E. ZabiM
  • 25Y. KoréD
  • 11J. KrassoF
  • 4V. MarchettiM
  • 23R. MatondoM
  • 5M. MbowD
  • 16O. NkambadioG
  • 27M. SimonF
  • 18O. SissokoF
Coach: L. Rosenior

Form going into Marseille vs Paris FC

Marseille

  • L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
  • W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026

Paris FC

  • W3-0Nice30 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Estac Troyes22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Marseille41036603
5Paris FC422062+48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Marseille vs Paris FC

  • 6 September 2026Marseille 2–3 Paris FCLigue 1
  • 31 January 2026Paris FC 2–2 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 23 August 2025Marseille 5–2 Paris FCLigue 1

Leading scorers: Marseille and Paris FC

Marseille

  • A. Gouiri4 goals

Paris FC

  • L. Sinayoko4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.