16 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana
Referee: Pawel Raczkowski
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Wieczysta Kraków 1-2 Raków Częstochowa.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Wieczysta Kraków, 23% draw, 30% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.13, 4.35 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wieczysta Kraków at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wieczysta Kraków0%Draw6%Raków Częstochowa94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
Bogdan Racovitan
56'
Stratos Svarnas
🔁José Antonio de la Rosa Garridoout: Lisandro Semedo
59'
62'
🔁Isak Brusbergout: Lamine Diaby Fadiga
62'
🔁Tomasz Pienkoout: Jean Carlos
Duje Dujmovic
63'
Antonio Milic
65'
Kamil Pestka
67'
⚽Lisandro Semedoassist: Efthymios Koulouris
69'
76'
•Oskar Repka
79'
⚽Lamine Diaby Fadiga (pen)
🔁Kamil Pestkaout: Matúš Vojtko
79'
🔁Efthymios Koulourisout: Christophe Lungoyi
79'
87'
🔁Mahir Emreliout: Adam Basse
🔁Lucas Piazónout: Bartosz Bialek
87'
🔁Karol Filaout: Kamil Dankowski
87'
88'
⚽Lamine Diaby Fadigaassist: Patryk Makuch
90+1'
🔁Erick Otienoout: Nils Zätterström
90+1'
🔁Patryk Makuchout: Arvid Brorsson

Match stats — Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa

48%Possession52%
14Shots23
3On target13
5Corners4
1.57xG2.68

Goals against chances

Wieczysta Kraków1 from 1.57 xGless than the chances were worth
Raków Częstochowa2 from 2.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wieczysta Kraków 3-4-3
  • 77M. KochalskiG
  • 15A. ĐermanovićD
  • 16A. MilićD
  • 55D. DujmovićD
  • 4K. FilaM
  • 10T. ChristensenM
  • 20M. MaigaardM
  • 33K. PestkaM
  • 19José de la RosaF
  • 9E. KoulourisF
  • 12Lucas PiazónF
Substitutes
  • 17K. DankowskiD
  • 21B. BiałekF
  • 11N. KneževićM
  • 8B. LedermanM
  • 88C. LungoyiF
  • 23Miki VillarM
  • 1A. MikułkoG
  • 97T. MrasM
  • 70P. PušićM
Coach: Ž. Kopić
Raków Częstochowa 4-4-1-1
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 25B. RacovițanD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 26E. OtienoD
  • 11M. EmreliM
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 21T. PieńkoM
  • 39I. BrusbergM
  • 9P. MakuchF
Substitutes
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 29W. Å»ołneczkoG
  • 19N. ZätterströmD
  • 20Jean CarlosM
  • 36M. PerovićM
  • 44B. MirčetićM
  • 15O. KwiatkowskiM
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 71T. KarićG
Coach: T. Kaczmarek

Form going into Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa

Wieczysta Kraków

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-2away to GKS Katowice12 October 2026

Raków Częstochowa

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-4GKS Katowice9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Wieczysta Kraków1422101828-108
16Raków Częstochowa1440102331-812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa

Wieczysta Kraków

GoalsAssists

  • Lucas Piazón42

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Raków Częstochowa won 2–1 at Wieczysta Kraków. The model had leaned towards a win for Wieczysta Kraków at 47% and given a win for Raków Częstochowa 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Lisandro Semedo 69' for Wieczysta Kraków, Lamine Diaby Fadiga (penalty) 79' for Raków Częstochowa, Lamine Diaby Fadiga 88' for Raków Częstochowa. On expected goals it finished 1.57–2.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wieczysta Kraków a 21.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.8% after a win, 21.3% after a draw, 27.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.8%, 6.8 points higher than before the match.

For Raków Częstochowa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 51.8% going in: 41.9% after a win, 52.0% after a draw, 57.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.9%, 9.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 38% / 26% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 23% / 30%: the biggest move is Wieczysta Kraków's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Wieczysta Kraków win47%▲ +9
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Raków Częstochowa win30%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.