30 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Referee: Daniel Stefanski
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Motor Lublin.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Cracovia Krakow, 27% draw, 31% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cracovia Krakow at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cracovia Krakow0%Draw5%Motor Lublin95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ajdin Hasić
13'
23'
⚽Tin Plavotić
Vincent Burlet
36'
40'
⚽Rony Lopesassist: Christopher Simon
Ajdin Hasić
42'
🔁Lasse Selvåg Nordåsout: Kahveh Zahiroleslam
66'
70'
🔁Yacine Bourhaneout: Alioune Oumar Tall
🔁Karol Knapout: beno selan
77'
77'
🔁Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicaoout: Makan Aiko
78'
🔁Bartosz Bereszyńskiout: Marek Kristian Bartos
78'
🔁Thomas Santosout: Kamil Lukoszek
Kahveh Zahiroleslam
80'
🔁Martin Minchevout: sayfallah ltaief
80'
85'
🔁Rony Lopesout: Mateusz Legowski
90+4'
Tin Plavotić
Gustav Henriksson
90+4'

Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin

52%Possession48%
19Shots19
6On target8
11Corners5
1.42xG2.04

Goals against chances

Cracovia Krakow1 from 1.42 xGabout what the chances were worth
Motor Lublin2 from 2.04 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow 4-2-3-1
  • 13S. MadejskiG
  • 25O. KakabadzeD
  • 4G. HenrikssonD
  • 61B. TraoréD
  • 28V. BurletD
  • 6Amir Al AmmariM
  • 20K. KnapM
  • 14A. HasićM
  • 90M. BerteM
  • 17M. MinchevM
  • 11L. NordåsF
Substitutes
  • 15K. GlikD
  • 39M. PerkovićD
  • 22D. BaumgartnerD
  • 5B. SelanM
  • 79D. PiłaD
  • 70D. KameriM
  • 47S. LtaiefF
  • 18Kahveh ZahiroleslamF
  • 77J. ChrapustaG
Coach: B. Grzelak
Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1
  • 33G. TratnikG
  • 29T. SantosD
  • 18B. BereszyńskiD
  • 4T. PlavotićD
  • 24F. LubereckiD
  • 27Y. BourhaneM
  • 30M. NdiayeM
  • 9Rony LopesM
  • 8C. SimonM
  • 11Fábio RonaldoM
  • 10K. CzubakF
Substitutes
  • 5A. AkatovD
  • 6M. ŁęgowskiM
  • 47Alioune TallM
  • 17K. LukoszekM
  • 23F. HaxhaM
  • 77Mateusz PosmykF
  • 90Dominik GregorskiF
  • 70M. AïkoM
  • 71M. PopaG
Coach: M. Misiura

Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin

Cracovia Krakow

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-3away to Piast Gliwice24 October 2026
  • D1-1Legia Warszawa17 October 2026
  • W3-1Zaglebie Lubin10 October 2026

Motor Lublin

Ekstraklasa

  • D2-2Zaglebie Lubin23 October 2026
  • W3-2Slask Wroclaw17 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Radomiak Radom12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Cracovia Krakow143381623-712
10Motor Lublin145452224-219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin

  • 16 May 2026Motor Lublin 3–3 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 22 November 2025Cracovia Krakow 1–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 26 April 2025Motor Lublin 0–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 26 October 2024Cracovia Krakow 6–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin

Cracovia Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hasić72

Motor Lublin

GoalsAssists

  • K. Czubak70
  • M. Ndiaye43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Motor Lublin won 2–1 at Cracovia Krakow. The model had leaned towards a win for Cracovia Krakow at 42% and given a win for Motor Lublin 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ajdin Hasić 13' for Cracovia Krakow, Tin Plavotić 23' for Motor Lublin, Rony Lopes 40' for Motor Lublin. On expected goals it finished 1.42–2.04.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cracovia Krakow a 26.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.9% after a win, 27.7% after a draw, 33.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.1%, 6.8 points higher than before the match.

For Motor Lublin the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.6% going in: 12.1% after a win, 19.5% after a draw, 24.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.1%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.