31 October 2026, 19:15 UTC

GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Katowice
Referee: Wojciech Myc
Full time3 – 2

Final score: GKS Katowice 3-2 Widzew Łódź.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% GKS Katowice, 27% draw, 24% Widzew Łódź — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

GKS Katowice at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

GKS Katowice97%Draw3%Widzew Łódź0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bartosz Nowakassist: Ilia Shkurin
33'
45'
🔁Ricardo Visusout: Christopher Cheng
Kacper Lukasiak
53'
⚽Bartosz Nowakassist: Mateusz·Kowalczyk
59'
🔁Kacper Lukasiakout: Sebastian Milewski
62'
🔁Alan Czerwińskiout: Mateusz Wdowiak
63'
63'
🔁Darian Malesout: Sebastian Bergier
63'
🔁Juljan Shehuout: Fran Alvarez
⚽Bartosz Nowak
65'
70'
⚽Steve Kapuadiassist: Jusuf Gazibegovic
74'
⚽Karol Świderski
76'
🔁Emil Kornvigout: Ioan Vermeșan
🔁Marcel Wedrychowskiout: Eman Marković
78'
86'
🔁Giannis Papanikolaouout: Lindon Selahi
Sebastian Milewski
88'
90+1'
Christopher Cheng
🔁Borja Galanout: Arkadiusz Jedrych
90+2'
90+3'
Ioan Vermeșan
90+6'
Fran Alvarez

Match stats — GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź

34%Possession66%
9Shots13
6On target4
3Corners5
2.69xG1.21

Goals against chances

GKS Katowice3 from 2.69 xGabout what the chances were worth
Widzew Łódź2 from 1.21 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

GKS Katowice 3-4-3
  • 87G. KobylakG
  • 30A. CzerwińskiD
  • 6L. KlemenzD
  • 55Pau RestaD
  • 23M. WasielewskiM
  • 19K. ŁukasiakM
  • 77M. KowalczykM
  • 8Borja GalánM
  • 10M. WędrychowskiF
  • 17I. ShkurinF
  • 27B. NowakF
Substitutes
  • 4A. JędrychD
  • 97E. JirkaM
  • 14M. OlsenD
  • 31S. BartlewiczM
  • 21Jakub KokosinskiF
  • 15E. MarkovićM
  • 1M. KikolskiG
  • 22S. MilewskiM
  • 26D. RasakM
Coach: R. Górak
Widzew Łódź 4-1-4-1
  • 1B. DrągowskiG
  • 70J. GazibegovićD
  • 25P. WiśniewskiD
  • 14VisusD
  • 3S. KapuadiD
  • 5G. PapanikolaouM
  • 19D. MalesM
  • 8E. KornvigM
  • 6J. ShehuM
  • 79S. BiukM
  • 28K. ŚwiderskiF
Substitutes
  • 4M. ŻyroD
  • 10Fran ÁlvarezM
  • 90Ioan VermeșanF
  • 18L. SelahiM
  • 91M. KrajewskiD
  • 20A. KlukowskiM
  • 30V. IlićG
  • 48Franciszek GolańskiG
  • 17C. ChengD
Coach: M. Stolarski

Form going into GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź

GKS Katowice

Ekstraklasa

  • L0-1away to Korona Kielce24 October 2026
  • L0-1Pogon Szczecin17 October 2026
  • W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026

Widzew Łódź

Ekstraklasa

  • D1-1Gornik Zabrze23 October 2026
  • D0-0Wisla Krakow16 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Piast Gliwice11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8GKS Katowice147072520+521
13Widzew Łódź142842019+114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź

  • 3 March 2026GKS Katowice 1–1 Widzew ŁódźCup
  • 8 February 2026GKS Katowice 1–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 2 August 2025Widzew Łódź 3–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 15 March 2025Widzew Łódź 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 13 September 2024GKS Katowice 2–2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 22 June 2024Widzew Łódź 3–1 GKS KatowiceFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź

GKS Katowice

GoalsAssists

  • I. Shkurin82
  • B. Nowak78

Widzew Łódź

GoalsAssists

  • K. Świderski51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

GKS Katowice beat Widzew Łódź 3–2. The model had made a win for GKS Katowice its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Bartosz Nowak 33' for GKS Katowice, Bartosz Nowak 59' for GKS Katowice, Bartosz Nowak 65' for GKS Katowice, Steve Kapuadi 70' for Widzew Łódź, Karol Świderski 74' for Widzew Łódź. On expected goals it finished 2.69–1.21.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Widzew Łódź a 16.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.2% after a win, 15.6% after a draw, 19.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on GKS Katowice v Widzew Łódź has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is GKS Katowice's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. GKS Katowice win49%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Widzew Łódź win24%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.