Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Gornik Zabrze 0-0 Legia Warszawa.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Gornik Zabrze, 29% draw, 29% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Gornik Zabrze at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. SchulzeG
- 21O. ZmrzlýD
- 26R. JanickiD
- 20Josema SánchezD
- 64E. JanžaD
- 82K. UrbaÅskiM
- 14J. KubickiM
- 8Paulo BernardoM
- 19PeterF
- 23S. LisethF
- 9J. AntisteF
- 27Z. InoussaF
- 7Y. Ikia DimiM
- 33M. KhlanM
- 99T. LoskaG
- 11E. PrekopF
- 29W. KaniaG
- 4P. BochniewiczD
- 66M. DietzD
- 28B. DonioM
- 89O. HindrichG
- 91K. PiątkowskiD
- 8R. AugustyniakD
- 5Robert DezielD
- 22P. WszołekM
- 53W. UrbańskiM
- 67B. KapustkaM
- 11K. ChodynaM
- 23M. ŠevčíkF
- 79Ł. ZjawińskiF
- 17M. SzczepaniakF
- 6Henrique ArreiolM
- 27Bogdan V'YunnikF
- 21V. BichakhchyanM
- 1I. BrkićG
- 14A. ČolakF
- 2S. FukudaD
- 13A. RecaD
- 4D. SzymańskiM
- 19Rúben VinagreD
Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa
- D1-1away to Widzew Łódź23 October 2026
- D1-1Piast Gliwice18 October 2026
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa
- L1-2Lech Poznan25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cracovia Krakow17 October 2026
- W2-0Wisla Krakow11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 31 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
- 11 April 2026Legia Warszawa 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 5 October 2025Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 6 April 2025Gornik Zabrze 1–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 28 September 2024Legia Warszawa 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 1 April 2024Gornik Zabrze 1–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 24 September 2023Legia Warszawa 2–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski51
Legia Warszawa
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Gornik Zabrze at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.35–0.36.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gornik Zabrze a 51.8% chance to finish in the top two: 59.0% after a win, 49.7% after a draw, 42.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 49.7%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
For Legia Warszawa the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 21.4% going in: 29.4% after a win, 21.4% after a draw, 15.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 21.4%.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.