31 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Poznan
Referee: Pawel Raczkowski
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Lech Poznan 3-1 Wisla Krakow.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Lech Poznan, 22% draw, 17% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lech Poznan at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lech Poznan99%Draw1%Wisla Krakow0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽antoni kozubalassist: Leo Bengtsson
54'
56'
⚽jakub krzyzanowskiassist: Frederico Duarte
⚽Patrick Walemarkassist: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
57'
⚽Y. Agneroassist: Radosław Murawski
64'
65'
🔁Julian Lelieveldout: Marko Bozic
65'
🔁Frederico Duarteout: Rafal Mikulec
🔁Leo Bengtssonout: Daniel Håkans
67'
73'
🔁James Igbekemeout: Víctor Meseguer
76'
•jakub krzyzanowski
80'
⚽Angel·Rodado (pen)
🔁Y. Agneroout: Wojciech Szymczak
81'
🔁Pablo Rodriguez Delgadoout: Luis Palma
81'
88'
🔁Kacper Dudaout: Oliwier Plawinski
🔁Patrick Walemarkout: Eryk Śledziński
90+3'
🔁Joel Pereiraout: Robert Gumny
90+3'

Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow

52%Possession48%
19Shots16
8On target3
7Corners2
2.31xG1.62

Goals against chances

Lech Poznan3 from 2.31 xGmore than the chances were worth
Wisla Krakow1 from 1.62 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 43A. KozubalM
  • 10P. WålemarkM
  • 21Pablo RodríguezM
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
Substitutes
  • 56W. SzymczakF
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 11D. HåkansM
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 24F. JagiełłoM
  • 44Eryk ŚledzińskiM
  • 31Wiktor ObremskiG
Coach: N. Frederiksen
Wisla Krakow 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ŁubikG
  • 34R. GigerD
  • 6A. UrygaD
  • 29D. GrujčićD
  • 52J. KrzyżanowskiD
  • 41K. DudaM
  • 12J. IgbekemeM
  • 10Frederico DuarteM
  • 7J. ErtlthalerM
  • 2J. LelieveldM
  • 9Ángel RodadoF
Substitutes
  • 97W. BiedrzyckiD
  • 17M. BožićM
  • 23Víctor MeseguerM
  • 4R. MikulecD
  • 50M. KutwaD
  • 93B. NeugebauerG
  • 13M. MaisonneuveD
  • 32Oliwier PlawinskiM
Coach: M. Jop

Form going into Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow

Lech Poznan

Ekstraklasa

  • W2-1away to Legia Warszawa25 October 2026
  • W6-1Korona Kielce18 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Slask Wroclaw10 October 2026

Wisla Krakow

Ekstraklasa

  • W2-1Raków Częstochowa24 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Widzew Łódź16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Legia Warszawa11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Lech Poznan1310213413+2132
5Wisla Krakow147342219+324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow

  • 13 March 2022Wisla Krakow 1–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 17 September 2021Lech Poznan 5–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 8 May 2021Wisla Krakow 1–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 19 December 2020Lech Poznan 0–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 8 March 2020Wisla Krakow 1–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 5 October 2019Lech Poznan 4–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow

Lech Poznan

GoalsAssists

  • P. Wålemark73
  • Pablo Rodríguez67
  • A. Sayyadmanesh50

Wisla Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • Ángel Rodado41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lech Poznan beat Wisla Krakow 3–1. The model had made a win for Lech Poznan its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: antoni kozubal 54' for Lech Poznan, jakub krzyzanowski 56' for Wisla Krakow, Patrick Walemark 57' for Lech Poznan, Y. Agnero 64' for Lech Poznan. On expected goals it finished 2.31–1.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lech Poznan a 78.6% chance to win the league: 81.7% after a win, 76.3% after a draw, 71.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 81.7%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

For Wisla Krakow the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 6.7% going in: 10.3% after a win, 6.8% after a draw, 5.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.6%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lech Poznan v Wisla Krakow has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 57% / 24% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Lech Poznan's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Lech Poznan win61%▲ +4
  2. Draw22%▼ −2
  3. Wisla Krakow win17%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.