31 October 2026, 13:45 UTC

Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana
Referee: Damian Sylwestrzak
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Wieczysta Kraków 1-3 Jagiellonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Wieczysta Kraków, 27% draw, 36% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wieczysta Kraków at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wieczysta Kraków0%Draw1%Jagiellonia99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Jesús Imaz (pen)
🔁Antonio Milicout: Duje Dujmovic
36'
45+1'
Mikołaj Łuczak
45'
🔁Eryk Kozlowskiout: Taras Romanczuk
🔁Petar Pusicout: Ben Lederman
55'
🔁Villarout: Tobias Christensen
55'
59'
🔁Dimitris Rallisout: Nik Prelec
60'
🔁Sergio Lozanoout: Ferslev Anders Klynge
66'
🔁Bartlomiej Wdowikout: Guilherme Montóia
⚽Duje Dujmovicassist: Tobias Christensen
72'
Karol Fila
75'
77'
🔁Ousmane Sowout: Jeremy Agbonifo
80'
⚽Nik Prelec
🔁Kamil Pestkaout: Matúš Vojtko
81'
🔁Efthymios Koulourisout: Bartosz Bialek
81'
84'
⚽Bernardo Vitalassist: Guilherme Montóia

Match stats — Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia

56%Possession44%
22Shots20
8On target9
10Corners5
2.21xG3.6

Goals against chances

Wieczysta Kraków1 from 2.21 xGless than the chances were worth
Jagiellonia3 from 3.60 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wieczysta Kraków 4-2-3-1
  • 77M. KochalskiG
  • 4K. FilaD
  • 15A. ĐermanovićD
  • 16A. MilićD
  • 33K. PestkaD
  • 70P. PušićM
  • 20M. MaigaardM
  • 23Miki VillarM
  • 12Lucas PiazónM
  • 7Lisandro SemedoM
  • 9E. KoulourisF
Substitutes
  • 21B. BiałekF
  • 10T. ChristensenM
  • 17K. DankowskiD
  • 55D. DujmovićD
  • 11N. KneževićM
  • 8B. LedermanM
  • 1A. MikułkoG
  • 97T. MrasM
  • 27M. VojtkoD
Coach: Ž. Kopić
Jagiellonia 4-3-3
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
  • 5Bernardo VitalD
  • 3D. StojinovićD
  • 20B. WdowikD
  • 11Jesús ImazM
  • 85Eryk KozlowskiM
  • 21Sergio LozanoM
  • 30O. SowF
  • 9Dimitris RallisF
  • 7K. SzmytF
Substitutes
  • 72K. JóźwiakM
  • 10J. AgbonifoF
  • 8D. DrachalM
  • 6T. RomanczukM
  • 99N. PrelecF
  • 2C. PolakD
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
Coach: A. Siemieniec

Form going into Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia

Wieczysta Kraków

Ekstraklasa

  • L0-2away to Slask Wroclaw25 October 2026
  • L1-2Raków Częstochowa16 October 2026
  • L1-2away to GKS Katowice12 October 2026

Jagiellonia

Ekstraklasa

  • W1-0Wisla Plock25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Zaglebie Lubin18 October 2026
  • L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Wieczysta Kraków1422101828-108
9Jagiellonia137061818021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia

Wieczysta Kraków

GoalsAssists

  • Lucas Piazón42

Jagiellonia

GoalsAssists

  • N. Prelec42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Jagiellonia won 3–1 at Wieczysta Kraków. The model had leaned towards a win for Wieczysta Kraków at 37% and given a win for Jagiellonia 36%. The goals: Jesús Imaz (penalty) 8' for Jagiellonia, Duje Dujmovic 72' for Wieczysta Kraków, Nik Prelec 80' for Jagiellonia, Bernardo Vital 84' for Jagiellonia. On expected goals it finished 2.21–3.60.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wieczysta Kraków a 37.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.3% after a win, 39.2% after a draw, 44.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.6%, 7 points higher than before the match.

For Jagiellonia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 4.6% going in: 2.6% after a win, 4.0% after a draw, 5.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.6%, 2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wieczysta Kraków v Jagiellonia has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 40% / 25% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Wieczysta Kraków's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Wieczysta Kraków win37%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▲ +2
  3. Jagiellonia win36%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.