Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens Challenge League prediction & result
Final score: Étoile Carouge 2-2 SC Kriens.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Étoile Carouge, 29% draw, 34% SC Kriens — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Étoile Carouge at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens
Étoile Carouge
Challenge League
- W2-1away to FC Aarau24 October 2026
- L0-2Yverdon Sport9 October 2026
- L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026
SC Kriens
Challenge League
- L2-5away to Yverdon Sport25 October 2026
- D1-1FC WIL 19009 October 2026
- W4-1Étoile Carouge18 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens
- 18 September 2026SC Kriens 4–1 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 9 March 2024SC Kriens 1–3 Étoile Carouge1. Liga Promotion
- 3 September 2023Étoile Carouge 4–0 SC Kriens1. Liga Promotion
- 15 April 2023SC Kriens 2–0 Étoile Carouge1. Liga Promotion
- 8 October 2022Étoile Carouge 0–2 SC Kriens1. Liga Promotion
The result against the call
Étoile Carouge and SC Kriens drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Étoile Carouge at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Krasniqi 9' for SC Kriens, L. Essiena 15' for Étoile Carouge, M. Francois 64' for SC Kriens, Itaitinga 82' for Étoile Carouge.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Étoile Carouge a 4.3% chance to finish in the top four: 7.7% after a win, 2.5% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 2.5%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
For SC Kriens the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 37.9% going in: 51.4% after a win, 37.2% after a draw, 25.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 37.2%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Étoile Carouge v SC Kriens has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Étoile Carouge's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Étoile Carouge win37%▲ +5
- Draw29%▼ −1
- SC Kriens win34%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.