24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Northampton vs Colchester League Two prediction & result

Sixfields Stadium, Northampton
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Northampton 2-0 Colchester.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Northampton, 35% draw, 32% Colchester — fair odds of 3.03, 2.86 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

the draw at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Northampton99%Draw1%Colchester0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Warhurstassist: Lee Evans
9'
Sam Hoskins
15'
30'
Moses Sesay
Lee Evans
32'
50'
🔁Bradley ihionveinout: Jaden Williams
⚽Sam Hoskinsassist: Owen Dale
50'
61'
🔁Robert Donald Huntout: Kane Vincent-Young
61'
🔁Jay Williamsout: Jack Payne
🔁James Maxwellout: josh powell
67'
🔁Sam Hoskinsout: Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh
67'
73'
🔁Ben perryout: Paul Digby
74'
🔁Beryly Lubalaout: Kien Connelly
🔁M. Warhurstout: Elliott List
82'
🔁Owen Daleout: Tyrese Fornah
90+3'

Match stats — Northampton vs Colchester

35%Possession65%
13Shots4
4On target3
7Corners2
0.75xG1.04

Goals against chances

Northampton2 from 0.75 xGmore than the chances were worth
Colchester0 from 1.04 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Northampton 4-4-2
  • 1Z. JeacockG
  • 44J. DonacienD
  • 6E. MooreD
  • 5J. GuthrieD
  • 3J. MaxwellD
  • 16J. WormleightonM
  • 24C. Lemonheigh-EvansM
  • 8L. EvansM
  • 7S. HoskinsM
  • 19O. DaleF
  • 9Matthew WarhurstF
Substitutes
  • 20L. BriggsM
  • 35M. DycheD
  • 14T. FornahM
  • 10E. ListF
  • 4J. O'Brien-WhitmarshM
  • 22Joshua Alan PowellD
  • 31J. DadgeG
Coach: C. Hogg
Colchester 4-2-3-1
  • 22T. Lo-TutalaG
  • 2R. HuntD
  • 5J. TuckerD
  • 24F. TerryD
  • 3E. IandoloD
  • 26J. WilliamsM
  • 4Ben PerryM
  • 27O. ThornM
  • 12M. SesayM
  • 15B. LubalaM
  • 9B. IhionvienF
Substitutes
  • 30K. Vincent-YoungD
  • 17Jaden WilliamsF
  • 20S. RaggettD
  • 10J. PayneM
  • 44S. KuffourD
  • 6P. DigbyM
  • 39K. ConnellyF
Coach: D. Cowley

Form going into Northampton vs Colchester

Northampton

League Two

  • L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026

Colchester

League Two

  • D1-1away to Chesterfield20 October 2026
  • D0-0Exeter City17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Northampton143651011-115
21Colchester143651419-515

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Northampton vs Colchester

  • 25 February 2023Colchester 0–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 30 July 2022Northampton 3–2 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 19 February 2022Northampton 3–0 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 14 August 2021Colchester 0–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 24 August 2019Colchester 1–0 NorthamptonLeague Two

The result against the call

Northampton beat Colchester 2–0. The model had leaned towards a draw at 35% and given a win for Northampton 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Warhurst 9' for Northampton, Sam Hoskins 50' for Northampton. On expected goals it finished 0.75–1.04.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Northampton a 12.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 10.3% after a win, 12.9% after a draw, 15.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.3%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Northampton v Colchester has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 35% / 32%: the biggest move is the draw, up 7 points.

  1. Northampton win33%▼ −6
  2. Draw35%▲ +7
  3. Colchester win32%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.