24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Modena vs Cesena Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Referee: Dario Madonia
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Modena 3-0 Cesena.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Modena, 27% draw, 21% Cesena — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Modena at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
•Antonio Fiori
5'
Antonio Fiori
⚽Andrea Belottiassist: Gastón Brugman
19'
20'
Mihajlo Ilic
⚽Andrea Belottiassist: Daniel Tonoli
32'
⚽Gianluca Frabotta (OG)
35'
🔁Daniel Tonoliout: Antonio Imputato
45'
45'
🔁Mihajlo Ilicout: Massimiliano Mangraviti
45'
🔁Luca D'Andreaout: X. Druiventak
🔁Alessandro Biancoout: Wisdom Acquah
57'
🔁Andrea Belottiout: Daniele Montevago
57'
61'
🔁Dimitri Bisoliout: Emil Bohinen
61'
🔁Cristian Shpendiout: Alessandro Debenedetti
🔁Giuseppe Ambrosinoout: Luca Bacchin
66'
77'
🔁Matteo Guidiout: Marco Dalla Vecchia
🔁Bryant Nielingout: Kleis Bozhanaj
79'

Match stats — Modena vs Cesena

70%Possession30%
19Shots4
5On target1
7Corners1
2.19xG0.18

Goals against chances

Modena3 from 2.19 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cesena0 from 0.18 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Modena 3-4-2-1
  • 1L. ChichizolaG
  • 23F. FolinoD
  • 6S. NadorD
  • 20B. NielingD
  • 77D. TonoliM
  • 16G. BrugmanM
  • 42A. BiancoM
  • 27Paulo AzziM
  • 72G. OlzerM
  • 70G. AmbrosinoM
  • 11A. BelottiF
Substitutes
  • 34Diego RoncoD
  • 8S. SantoroM
  • 32W. AcquahM
  • 9D. MontevagoF
  • 7F. ZampanoD
  • 28D. AdorniD
  • 15Martino OderoD
  • 26A. ImputatoF
  • 29L. BacchinF
Coach: D. Galloppa
Cesena 4-3-3
  • 1A. SianoG
  • 15A. CiofiD
  • 6M. IlićD
  • 4J. GelliD
  • 7G. FrabottaD
  • 25D. BisoliM
  • 18M. GuidiM
  • 8M. FrancesconiM
  • 16L. D'AndreaF
  • 9C. ShpendiF
  • 80A. FioriF
Substitutes
  • 3A. DavidD
  • 27M. Dalla VecchiaM
  • 11M. CapriniF
  • 32E. BohinenM
  • 91A. DebenedettiF
  • 14X. DruiventakM
  • 13L. FerrettiG
  • 39N. FontanaG
  • 23V. MagniD
Coach: Alessandro Diamanti

Form going into Modena vs Cesena

Modena

Serie B

  • L1-2away to Carrarese17 October 2026

Cesena

Serie B

  • D1-1Avellino18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Modena117222010+1023
11Cesena113621214-215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Modena vs Cesena

  • 7 March 2026Modena 0–0 CesenaSerie B
  • 28 November 2025Cesena 1–0 ModenaSerie B
  • 13 May 2025Modena 0–1 CesenaSerie B
  • 13 September 2024Cesena 2–2 ModenaSerie B
  • 7 February 2022Modena 1–0 CesenaSerie C - Girone B
  • 28 September 2021Cesena 1–2 ModenaSerie C - Girone B

Leading scorers: Modena and Cesena

Modena

GoalsAssists

  • A. Belotti70
  • G. Ambrosino33
  • G. Caso32

Cesena

GoalsAssists

  • C. Shpendi81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Modena beat Cesena 3–0. The model had made a win for Modena its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Andrea Belotti 19' for Modena, Andrea Belotti 32' for Modena, Gianluca Frabotta (own goal) 35' for Modena. Sent off: Antonio Fiori (Cesena) 5'. On expected goals it finished 2.19–0.18.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Modena a 19.4% chance to finish in the top two: 22.0% after a win, 15.3% after a draw, 14.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.0%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

For Cesena the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.9% going in: 19.1% after a win, 24.6% after a draw, 28.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.4%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.