24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Sudtirol vs Sampdoria Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Marco Druso, Bolzano
Referee: Valerio Crezzini, Italy
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sudtirol 1-1 Sampdoria.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Sudtirol, 30% draw, 23% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sudtirol at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sudtirol0%Draw4%Sampdoria96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
🔁Fabio Depaoliout: Manuel Cicconi
18'
Manuel Cicconi
34'
⚽Yari Verschaerenassist: Tjas Begic
🔁Rares Burneteout: Alvin Okoro
60'
🔁Simone Davìout: Elia Schrott
60'
Giacomo Stabile
61'
67'
🔁Tobias Lauritsenout: Gennaro Tutino
67'
🔁Alex Ferrariout: Stefan Gartenmann
🔁Giacomo Stabileout: Davide Veroli
67'
68'
Stefan Gartenmann
🔁Aljosa Vasicout: Dhirar Brik
76'
🔁Simone Tronchinout: Kevin Zeroli
76'
82'
🔁Tjas Begicout: Yann Karamoh
83'
🔁Yari Verschaerenout: Kevin Mbabu
⚽Salvatore Molina (pen)
90+6'

Match stats — Sudtirol vs Sampdoria

70%Possession30%
11Shots12
2On target3
2Corners5
1.84xG0.63

Goals against chances

Sudtirol1 from 1.84 xGless than the chances were worth
Sampdoria1 from 0.63 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sudtirol 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PlizzariG
  • 4R. StivanelloD
  • 55A. GiorginiD
  • 27G. StabileD
  • 79S. MolinaM
  • 10Fabio RispoliM
  • 5S. TronchinM
  • 24S. DavìM
  • 9R. BurneteM
  • 14A. VasicM
  • 25K. MixturF
Substitutes
  • 23F. DaviD
  • 46D. BrikM
  • 39Marco IulianoD
  • 90A. OkoroF
  • 1Lukas PlonerG
  • 80Elias SchrootM
  • 21F. TaitM
  • 12Rok VadjunecG
  • 3D. VeroliD
Coach: D. Possanzini
Sampdoria 4-3-2-1
  • 12Andrey KrastevG
  • 29A. Di PardoD
  • 25A. FerrariD
  • 15F. Delli CarriD
  • 23F. DepaoliD
  • 6L. HendersonM
  • 28O. AbildgaardM
  • 45A. MakoumbouM
  • 11T. BegićM
  • 16Y. VerschaerenM
  • 9T. LauritsenF
Substitutes
  • 1P. VindahlG
  • 99G. TutinoF
  • 43K. MbabuD
  • 96S. MassoloG
  • 14Yann KaramohF
  • 3S. GartenmannD
  • 38K. DiopD
  • 7M. CicconiM
Coach: L. D'Angelo

Form going into Sudtirol vs Sampdoria

Sudtirol

Serie B

  • L0-3away to Juve Stabia18 October 2026

Sampdoria

Serie B

  • L1-2Arezzo18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Sudtirol113621312+115
15Sampdoria113261118-711

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Sampdoria

  • 1 May 2026Sampdoria 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
  • 31 August 2025Sudtirol 3–1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 15 February 2025Sudtirol 2–1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 21 September 2024Sampdoria 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
  • 13 April 2024Sampdoria 0–1 SudtirolSerie B
  • 28 October 2023Sudtirol 3–1 SampdoriaSerie B

The result against the call

Sudtirol and Sampdoria drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sudtirol at 47% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Yari Verschaeren 34' for Sampdoria, Salvatore Molina (penalty) 90+6' for Sudtirol. On expected goals it finished 1.84–0.63.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sudtirol a 6.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.1% after a win, 7.1% after a draw, 8.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.1%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.

For Sampdoria the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 63.3% going in: 58.1% after a win, 62.8% after a draw, 66.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 62.8%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sudtirol v Sampdoria has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 50% / 29% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 30% / 23%: the biggest move is Sudtirol's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Sudtirol win47%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Sampdoria win23%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.