Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Cruz Azul 5-0 FC Juarez.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Cruz Azul, 18% draw, 15% FC Juarez — fair odds of 1.49, 5.56 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cruz Azul at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. GudiñoG
- 2A. MozoD
- 17A. GarcíaD
- 12A. MontesD
- 33G. PioviD
- 3O. CamposD
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 6É. LiraM
- 19C. RodríguezM
- 7N. IbáñezF
- 10A. MontañoF
- 21G. FernándezF
- 11C. EbereF
- 60Ariel Castro SevillaM
- 14J. CaleroF
- 55R. GonzalezM
- 23K. MierG
- 16J. MárquezM
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 22J. RodarteD
- 1S. JuradoG
- 203L. A. CarmonaD
- 2G. SepúlvedaD
- 26D. PiñaD
- 14E. LópezD
- 5D. GarcíaM
- 183L. SilvaM
- 33F. NevárezM
- 21RicardinhoM
- 11J. RodríguezM
- 19Ó. EstupiñánF
- 201J. CarmonaM
- 8Guilherme CastilhoM
- 13Rodrigo DouradoM
- 17L. Martínez DupuyF
- 4A. MayorgaD
- 250B. MolinaM
- 3J. MurilloD
- 27Guillermo RuizG
- 16J. SigalaM
Form going into Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez
Cruz Azul
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to Pumas UNAM12 October 2026
- D3-3Toluca26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Monterrey20 September 2026
- W4-3Club America13 September 2026
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
FC Juarez
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Club Tijuana10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Leon28 September 2026
- W2-0Tigres UANL19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos Laguna14 September 2026
- L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
What these results say
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 32 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez
- 31 January 2026FC Juarez 3–4 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 20 September 2025Cruz Azul 3–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 18 January 2025FC Juarez 1–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 24 October 2024Cruz Azul 4–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 20 January 2024FC Juarez 0–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 2 November 2023Cruz Azul 2–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and FC Juarez
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- A. Montaño65
- N. Ibáñez63
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruz Azul beat FC Juarez 5–0. The model had made a win for Cruz Azul its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Andrés Montaño 4' for Cruz Azul, Carlos Rodriguez 23' for Cruz Azul, Omar Campos 45+3' for Cruz Azul, Agustín Palavecino 55' for Cruz Azul, Rogelio Gonzalez 75' for Cruz Azul. On expected goals it finished 2.76–1.20.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cruz Azul a 16.6% chance to finish in the top four: 19.9% after a win, 7.5% after a draw, 4.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.9%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
For FC Juarez the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 97.8% going in: 92.4% after a win, 98.0% after a draw, 98.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 98.9%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Cruz Azul v FC Juarez has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 59% / 23% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 67% / 18% / 15%: the biggest move is Cruz Azul's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Cruz Azul win67%▲ +8
- Draw18%▼ −5
- FC Juarez win15%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.