18 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

Leon vs Club America Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio León, Leon
Referee: Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas
Full time3 – 5

Final score: Leon 3-5 Club America.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Leon, 27% draw, 40% Club America — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Club America at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Leon0%Draw1%Club America99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Jorge Guillermo Almada Álves
21'
•Franco Rossano
24'
⚽Henry Martin (pen)
Jhohan Romana
28'
34'
⚽Carlos Álvarezassist: Henry Martin
Daniel Arcila
45+3'
45+6'
Franco Rossano
45+7'
Israel Reyes
🔁Jesús Laraout: Jose Alvarado
45'
⚽Jose Alvaradoassist: Daniel Arcila
53'
58'
⚽Erick Sánchezassist: Carlos Álvarez
Juan Guevara
61'
🔁Edgar Guerraout: Ismael Díaz
63'
🔁Jose Rodriguezout: Juan Dominguez
63'
74'
🔁Erick Sánchezout: Edwin Cerrillo
🔁Daniel Arcilaout: Fernando Beltran
75'
75'
🔁Franco Rossanoout: Cristian Borja
75'
Álex Zendejas
80'
🔁Álex Zendejasout: Isaias Violante
⚽Ivan Moreno
82'
83'
🔁Israel Reyesout: Alan Cervantes
83'
🔁Carlos Álvarezout: Oscar Andres Perea Abonce
84'
⚽Oscar Andres Perea Abonceassist: Brian Rodríguez
90'
⚽Brian Rodríguezassist: Oscar Andres Perea Abonce
90+1'
Edwin Cerrillo
Juan Dominguez
90+1'
⚽Ismael Díazassist: Fernando Beltran
90+6'

Match stats — Leon vs Club America

55%Possession45%
13Shots15
7On target10
7Corners2
1.64xG2.19

Goals against chances

Leon3 from 1.64 xGmore than the chances were worth
Club America5 from 2.19 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Leon 4-1-4-1
  • 23Ó. GarcíaG
  • 7I. MorenoD
  • 14J. RomañaD
  • 3Juan José Guevara PossuD
  • 26S. ReyesD
  • 29J. RodríguezM
  • 18E. GuerraM
  • 20R. EcheverríaM
  • 203J. LaraM
  • 13D. ArcilaM
  • 27D. CambindoF
Substitutes
  • 5S. VegasD
  • 33A. VillegasD
  • 25P. BellónD
  • 19J. AlvaradoF
  • 6F. BeltránM
  • 4B. ColulaD
  • 8J. DomínguezM
  • 11I. DíazF
  • 21S. LondoñoF
Coach: J. Gandolfi
Club America 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. MalagónG
  • 34D. EspinozaD
  • 14S. BuenoD
  • 15S. RamosD
  • 24F. RossanoD
  • 28É. SánchezM
  • 3I. ReyesM
  • 10A. ZendejasM
  • 8Carlos ÁlvarezM
  • 7B. RodríguezM
  • 9H. MartínF
Substitutes
  • 26C. BorjaD
  • 6E. CerrilloM
  • 13A. CervantesM
  • 30R. CotaG
  • 20A. GutiérrezM
  • 2E. LaraD
  • 22Ó. PereaF
  • 12I. ViolanteF
  • 32M. VázquezD
Coach: G. Almada

Form going into Leon vs Club America

Leon

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Puebla10 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Juarez28 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Club Queretaro21 September 2026
  • W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026

Club America

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Monterrey11 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Necaxa28 September 2026
  • D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
  • L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
  • W2-0Puebla30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Leon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Leon.
  • Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Club America conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Club America.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Leon166552321+223
2Club America168623823+1530

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Leon vs Club America

  • 6 September 2026Leon 1–0 Club AmericaLeagues Cup
  • 22 April 2026Leon 2–3 Club AmericaLiga MX
  • 2 November 2025Club America 2–0 LeonLiga MX
  • 20 February 2025Club America 1–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 6 October 2024Leon 1–1 Club AmericaLiga MX
  • 11 February 2024Leon 0–1 Club AmericaLiga MX

The full Leon vs Club America record →

Leading scorers: Leon and Club America

Leon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Alvarado61

Club America

GoalsAssists

  • H. Martín113
  • M. Borja60
  • B. Rodríguez53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Club America won 5–3 at Leon. The model had made a win for Club America its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Henry Martin (penalty) 24' for Club America, Carlos Álvarez 34' for Club America, Jose Alvarado 53' for Leon, Erick Sánchez 58' for Club America, Ivan Moreno 82' for Leon, Oscar Andres Perea Abonce 84' for Club America, Brian Rodríguez 90' for Club America, Ismael Díaz 90+6' for Leon. On expected goals it finished 1.64–2.19.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club America a 30.5% chance to finish top of the Apertura: 41.6% after a win, 26.6% after a draw, 19.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.6%, 11.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.