Toluca vs Atletico San Luis Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Toluca 1-1 Atletico San Luis.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Toluca, 20% draw, 18% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Toluca at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toluca vs Atletico San Luis
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. GonzálezG
- 19S. SimónD
- 25E. LópezD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 20J. GallardoD
- 5F. RomeroM
- 35É. GutiérrezM
- 11HelinhoM
- 16F. ViñasM
- 9A. VegaM
- 26PaulinhoF
- 15P. PérezM
- 8N. CastroM
- 2D. BarbosaD
- 24F. ArceM
- 10J. AnguloM
- 29J. DíazM
- 13LuanD
- 17B. GarcíaD
- 22L. GarcíaG
- 25G. LajudG
- 3Robson BambuD
- 31E. ÁguilaD
- 18A. CruzD
- 2R. TorresM
- 21Ó. MacíasM
- 10S. Salles-LamongeM
- 5R. MerazM
- 11D. RodríguezF
- 17A. DuarteF
- 22Rafa LlorenteF
- 20L. FloresF
- 7B. GaldamesM
- 30B. GalindoD
- 14M. GarcíaM
- 99F. MoraF
- 19S. MuñózF
- 26S. Pérez BouquetM
- 6JuanpeD
- 1A. SánchezG
Form going into Toluca vs Atletico San Luis
Toluca
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Tigres UANL10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Cruz Azul26 September 2026
- L2-3Santos Laguna21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
- W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
Atletico San Luis
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Santos Laguna11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Pumas UNAM27 September 2026
- W3-1Necaxa19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Leon15 September 2026
- L0-3Guadalajara Chivas5 September 2026
What these results say
- Toluca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toluca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toluca had three goals or more.
- Atletico San Luis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico San Luis had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toluca vs Atletico San Luis
- 13 April 2026Toluca 1–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 30 August 2025Atletico San Luis 1–3 TolucaLiga MX
- 17 April 2025Atletico San Luis 0–1 TolucaLiga MX
- 25 August 2024Toluca 2–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 20 April 2024Atletico San Luis 1–5 TolucaLiga MX
- 29 October 2023Toluca 3–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
Leading scorers: Toluca and Atletico San Luis
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas81
- Paulinho50
Atletico San Luis
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toluca and Atletico San Luis drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Toluca at 62% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Érick Gutiérrez 67' for Toluca, Rafael Llorente 73' for Atletico San Luis. On expected goals it finished 0.00–0.00.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Toluca a 72.0% chance to finish in the top four: 80.0% after a win, 61.3% after a draw, 49.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.3%, 10.7 points lower than before the match.
For Atletico San Luis the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.8% going in: 4.9% after a win, 13.9% after a draw, 23.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.9%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Toluca v Atletico San Luis has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 55% / 24% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 62% / 20% / 18%: the biggest move is Toluca's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Toluca win62%▲ +7
- Draw20%▼ −4
- Atletico San Luis win18%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.