19 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

Monterrey vs CF Pachuca Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Referee: Cesar Arturo Ramos
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Monterrey 2-1 CF Pachuca.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Monterrey, 27% draw, 33% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Monterrey at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Monterrey96%Draw4%CF Pachuca0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lucas Ocampos (pen)
13'
⚽Diego Rossi
13'
⚽Jesús Coronaassist: Lucas Ocampos
16'
Lucas Ocampos
22'
56'
Rodolfo Pizarro
63'
🔁Mauricio Isaisout: Cristóbal Hernández
🔁Lucas Ocamposout: Lucas Orellano
71'
🔁Diego Rossiout: Óliver Torres
72'
75'
⚽Salomón Rondónassist: Jorge Berlanga
🔁Jesús Coronaout: Stefan Medina
78'
🔁Ricardo Chávezout: Paxon Levi Ruffin Tamez
78'
81'
🔁Javier Vallejoout: Gael Álvarez
84'
Sergio Barreto
Gerardo Arteaga
85'
85'
Carlos Moreno
87'
🔁Jorge Berlangaout: Sebastian Santos
87'
🔁Rodolfo Pizarroout: Illian Hernández
Óliver Torres
88'
🔁César Garzaout: Jorge Rodríguez
89'

Match stats — Monterrey vs CF Pachuca

52%Possession48%
10Shots11
4On target3
3Corners8
1.79xG0.91

Goals against chances

Monterrey2 from 1.79 xGabout what the chances were worth
CF Pachuca1 from 0.91 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Monterrey 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. AndradaG
  • 2R. ChávezD
  • 4V. GuzmánD
  • 13C. SalcedoD
  • 3G. ArteagaD
  • 18Cesar Garza CantuM
  • 25O. PinedaM
  • 9D. RossiM
  • 17J. CoronaM
  • 7L. OcamposM
  • 99H. CuypersF
Substitutes
  • 27R. de la RosaF
  • 22L. CárdenasG
  • 5F. AmbrízM
  • 14É. AguirreM
  • 19A. AcevesD
  • 33S. MedinaD
  • 10L. OrellanoF
  • 30J. RodríguezM
  • 244Paxon Levi Ruffin TamezM
Coach: M. Almeyda
CF Pachuca 4-4-1-1
  • 25C. MorenoG
  • 13J. BerlangaD
  • 4Eduardo BauermannD
  • 2S. BarretoD
  • 6M. IsaísD
  • 21N. VallejoM
  • 16C. RiveraM
  • 26Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezM
  • 11O. IdrissiM
  • 7R. PizarroM
  • 23S. RondónF
Substitutes
  • 31J. EulogioG
  • 211C. HernandezF
  • 19I. HernándezF
  • 221Ulises Natanael Martínez ReynosoD
  • 205Ángel Eduardo Padilla GonzálezM
  • 30S. RodríguezM
  • 12S. SantosM
  • 207Ian Josué Zavala OsorioF
  • 187G. ÁlvarezF
Coach: B. Mora

Form going into Monterrey vs CF Pachuca

Monterrey

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Club America11 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Atlante FC26 September 2026
  • W1-0Cruz Azul20 September 2026
  • D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
  • L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026

CF Pachuca

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Necaxa11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Santos Laguna27 September 2026
  • D2-2Club Tijuana21 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
  • W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Monterrey failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Monterrey scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • CF Pachuca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Monterrey167362725+224
9CF Pachuca166462920+922

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Monterrey vs CF Pachuca

  • 19 April 2026Monterrey 1–3 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 13 July 2025CF Pachuca 3–0 MonterreyLiga MX
  • 28 April 2025Monterrey 1–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 26 January 2025Monterrey 2–3 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 8 July 2024CF Pachuca 0–1 MonterreyLiga MX
  • 11 February 2024Monterrey 3–2 CF PachucaLiga MX

The full Monterrey vs CF Pachuca record →

Leading scorers: Monterrey and CF Pachuca

Monterrey

GoalsAssists

  • L. Ocampos73
  • H. Cuypers61
  • D. Rossi53

CF Pachuca

GoalsAssists

  • S. Rondón162

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Monterrey beat CF Pachuca 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Monterrey at 40%. The goals: Diego Rossi 13' for Monterrey, Jesús Corona 16' for Monterrey, Salomón Rondón 75' for CF Pachuca. On expected goals it finished 1.79–0.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Monterrey a 8.2% chance to finish in the top four: 13.2% after a win, 5.3% after a draw, 2.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.2%, 5 points higher than before the match.

For CF Pachuca the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.6% going in: 1.7% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 14.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.6%, 5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Monterrey v CF Pachuca has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Monterrey's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Monterrey win40%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. CF Pachuca win33%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.