Vitoria vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 0-3 Fluminense.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Vitoria, 29% draw, 38% Fluminense — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Fluminense at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Fluminense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 95Caique GonçalvesM
- 33ErickM
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 6Emmanuel MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 91Renê SousaF
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 88Zé VitorM
- 16Rúben Ramos IsmaelM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 59Gean de Jesus SoaresD
- 26EdenilsonM
- 12Diego TarziaD
- 1FábioG
- 23GugaD
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 22Juan Pablo FreytesD
- 6RenêD
- 35HérculesM
- 16NonatoM
- 17Agustín CanobbioM
- 32Luciano AcostaM
- 11Jefferson SavarinoM
- 7HulkF
- 10GansoM
- 19Rodrigo CastilloF
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 90Kevin SernaF
- 30Yeferson SoteldoF
- 27Marcelo PitalugaG
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 94OtávioM
Form going into Vitoria vs Fluminense
Vitoria
Serie A
- L0-2away to Coritiba31 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico Paranaense24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Corinthians19 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo11 October 2026
Fluminense
Serie A
- W2-1Internacional28 October 2026
- L1-2away to Chapecoense24 October 2026
- L1-2Santos18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026
What these results say
- Vitoria did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Vitoria conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Vitoria scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fluminense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fluminense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fluminense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Fluminense
- 9 May 2026Fluminense 2–2 VitoriaSerie A
- 20 September 2025Vitoria 0–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 20 April 2025Fluminense 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 26 October 2024Vitoria 2–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 27 June 2024Fluminense 0–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 6 September 2018Fluminense 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Fluminense
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fluminense won 3–0 at Vitoria. The model had made a win for Fluminense its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Savarino 15' for Fluminense, A. Canobbio 42' for Fluminense, R. Castillo 90' for Fluminense. On expected goals it finished 0.82–1.90.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vitoria a 36.8% chance to finish in the bottom four: 15.7% after a win, 38.3% after a draw, 52.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.5%, 15.7 points higher than before the match.
For Fluminense the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 58.3% going in: 73.8% after a win, 53.7% after a draw, 42.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.8%, 15.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.