5 November 2026, 00:30 UTC

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Referee: R. Claus
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Sao Paulo 0-0 Corinthians.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sao Paulo, 29% draw, 26% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sao Paulo at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sao Paulo8%Draw91%Corinthians1%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Djhordney
31'
31'
M. Pereira
41'
🔁R. Garroout: Vitinho
45+1'
Andre Ramalho
🔁Arturout: Jonathan Calleri
46'
🔁Djhordneyout: Pablo Maia
46'
52'
P. Milans
Pedro Lima
60'
Newton
61'
62'
🔁Kaio Cesarout: M. Depay
62'
🔁Andre Ramalhoout: A. Carrillo
67'
M. Depay
Luciano
67'
🔁Lucas Mouraout: Ferreira
71'
82'
Yuri Alberto
84'
🔁Breno Bidonout: Charles Rigon
84'
🔁P. Milansout: Joao Pedro
🔁Lucianoout: G. Santana
85'
🔁D. Bobadillaout: Pedro Ferreira
86'
Ferreira
89'
90+4'
A. Carrillo

Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Corinthians

55%Possession45%
19Shots18
5On target4
6Corners8
1.79xG1.24

Goals against chances

Sao Paulo0 from 1.79 xGless than the chances were worth
Corinthians0 from 1.24 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sao Paulo 4-1-4-1
  • 23RafaelG
  • 32Pedro LimaD
  • 5Robert ArboledaD
  • 2Rafael TolóiD
  • 12Iago BorduchiD
  • 28NewtonM
  • 37ArturM
  • 48DjhordneyM
  • 16Damián BobadillaM
  • 7Lucas MouraM
  • 10LucianoF
Substitutes
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 9Jonathan CalleriF
  • 11FerreirinhaF
  • 43Gustavo SantanaF
  • 46Pedro FerreiraM
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 54Luis OsorioD
  • 19Lucas RamonD
  • 18WendellD
Corinthians 4-2-3-1
  • 1Hugo SouzaG
  • 20Pedro MilansD
  • 5André RamalhoD
  • 13Gustavo HenriqueD
  • 26Fabrizio AngileriD
  • 49André LuizM
  • 7Breno BidonM
  • 37Kaio CésarM
  • 8Rodrigo GarroM
  • 21Matheus BiduM
  • 9Yuri AlbertoF
Substitutes
  • 11VitinhoF
  • 19André CarrilloM
  • 10Memphis DepayF
  • 4João Pedro TchocaD
  • 35CharlesM
  • 51Kauê CamargoG
  • 46HugoD
  • 29AllanM
  • 23Matheus PereiraM

Form going into Sao Paulo vs Corinthians

Sao Paulo

Serie A

  • L2-3away to Bahia29 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Mirassol24 October 2026
  • W1-0Vasco da Gama18 October 2026
  • W2-1Vitoria11 October 2026

Corinthians

Serie A

  • W2-0Mirassol30 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Vasco da Gama24 October 2026
  • D1-1Vitoria19 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Palmeiras11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sao Paulo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sao Paulo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Sao Paulo.
  • Corinthians scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Corinthians failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Corinthians conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sao Paulo34128143939044
17Corinthians34910153642-637

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Corinthians

  • 10 May 2026Corinthians 3–2 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 18 January 2026Corinthians 1–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
  • 20 November 2025Corinthians 3–1 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 20 July 2025Sao Paulo 2–0 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 26 January 2025Sao Paulo 3–1 CorinthiansPaulista - A1
  • 29 September 2024Sao Paulo 3–1 CorinthiansSerie A

The full Sao Paulo vs Corinthians record →

Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Corinthians

Sao Paulo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Calleri102
  • Luciano91

Corinthians

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sao Paulo and Corinthians drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sao Paulo at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. Sent off: M. Pereira (Corinthians) 31', Yuri Alberto (Corinthians) 82'. On expected goals it finished 1.79–1.24.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Corinthians a 42.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 19.7% after a win, 40.4% after a draw, 54.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 40.4%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sao Paulo v Corinthians has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 46% / 30% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Corinthians's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Sao Paulo win45%▼ −1
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Corinthians win26%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.