Lillestrom vs Plzen UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 0-1 Plzen.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Lillestrom, 29% draw, 41% Plzen — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Plzen at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lillestrom vs Plzen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12P. DahlbergG
- 2L. RangerD
- 28R. GabrielsenD
- 47S. KristiansenD
- 26Y. PaintsilD
- 29Y. IbrahimajM
- 21F. OttossonM
- 14G. NyheimM
- 20VáF
- 8F. GulbrandsenF
- 17E. KitolanoF
- 7L. AlperudM
- 11F. ElkærD
- 5S. FossD
- 1S. HagerupG
- 19C. JebaraF
- 18K. KrygårdM
- 16H. MellandM
- 15G. NordhF
- 10T. Lehne OlsenF
- 44F. WiegeleG
- 2T. PališčákD
- 40S. DwehD
- 98F. PrebslD
- 29A. GabrielM
- 17P. HrošovskýM
- 6L. ČervM
- 14Merchas DoskiM
- 12A. SojkaM
- 99A. MemićM
- 80P. AduF
- 18T. LadraF
- 7S. LawalF
- 36S. PirgiÄM
- 19C. SouaréM
- 5Karel SpáčilD
- 1D. ŤapajG
- 10M. ToureF
- 3D. VavroD
- 9D. VišinskýM
Form going into Lillestrom vs Plzen
Lillestrom
UEFA Europa League
- L0-6Real Sociedad22 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sparta Praha15 October 2026
- L1-2Torreense17 September 2026
Plzen
UEFA Europa League
- L1-2Levski Sofia22 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ferencvarosi TC15 October 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Plzen won 1–0 at Lillestrom. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Plzen at 41%. The goal: Prince Kwabena Adu 10' for Plzen. On expected goals it finished 0.67–2.10.
How the call on Lillestrom v Plzen has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 30% / 26% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 29% / 41%: the biggest move is Plzen's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Lillestrom win30%=
- Draw29%▲ +3
- Plzen win41%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.