31 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets First League prediction & result

Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
Referee: Todor Kirov
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-3 Ludogorets.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 30% draw, 52% Ludogorets — fair odds of 5.56, 3.33 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ludogorets at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0%Draw1%Ludogorets99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽Erick Marcus dos Santos Oliveira do Carmo
Julian Iliev
34'
Denis Kirashki
44'
🔁Axel Velevout: Ryan Leijten
46'
🔁Denis Kirashkiout: junior burban
46'
Andrei Chindriş
54'
Andrei Chindriş
56'
🔁Julian Ilievout: brito matheus
58'
59'
🔁Anton Nedyalkovout: Son
59'
🔁Kwadwo Duahout: Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz
62'
⚽petar stanic
63'
Ivan Zhelizko
🔁Christ Longvilleout: Anton Fase
68'
74'
🔁Caio Vidal Rochaout: Bernard Tekpetey
74'
🔁Deroy Duarteout: Amir Hadžiahmetović
83'
Omar Rekik
Milan petrovic
83'
87'
⚽Bernard Tekpetey
87'
🔁Ivan Zhelizkoout: Filip Kaloc

Match stats — Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets

33%Possession67%
8Shots14
2On target5
2Corners6

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. MilosavljevicG
  • 2Adrián CovaD
  • 4A. ChindrişD
  • 13Lucas RyanD
  • 5T. PavlovM
  • 31D. MrankovF
  • 6M. TrdanM
  • 39P. UmarbayevM
  • 10J. IlievM
  • 29Christ LongvilleF
  • 19junior burbanF
Substitutes
  • 3D. AliF
  • 33Yoan Dzhelepov
  • 17A. FaseF
  • 26D. Kirashki
  • 99J. LamyF
  • 11R. LeijtenM
  • 94brito matheusD
  • 44M. PetrovićD
  • 9A. VelevF
Coach: D. Kosič
Ludogorets 4-2-3-1
  • 39H. BonmannG
  • 15E. KurtulusD
  • 4Hossam AbdelmaguidD
  • 2J. AnderssonD
  • 42S. ShishkovD
  • 20A. CamaraM
  • 23Deroy DuarteM
  • 6I. ZhelizkoM
  • 37B. TekpeteyF
  • 11Caio VidalF
  • 12Rwan CruzF
Substitutes
  • 9K. DuahM
  • 5G. TerzievD
  • 14P. StanićM
  • 44O. RekikD
  • 22M. PolendakovD
  • 3A. NedyalkovD
  • 10Nathan FernandesF
  • 26F. KaločM
  • 8A. HadžiahmetovićM
Coach: I. Jovičević

Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

First League

  • D0-0Slavia Sofia26 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia10 October 2026
  • D1-1CSKA Sofia20 September 2026

Ludogorets

First League

  • L0-2away to CSKA Sofia26 October 2026
  • W5-0Arda Kardzhali12 October 2026
  • W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv14338818-1012
3Ludogorets139312611+1530

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets

  • 18 July 2026Ludogorets 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 29 May 2026Ludogorets 0–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 2 March 2026Ludogorets 1–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 14 September 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 30 March 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 6 October 2024Ludogorets 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League

Leading scorers: Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Ludogorets

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

No player in First League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Ludogorets

GoalsAssists

  • B. Tekpetey20
  • Rwan Cruz12

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ludogorets won 3–0 at Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The model had made a win for Ludogorets its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Erick Marcus dos Santos Oliveira do Carmo 21' for Ludogorets, petar stanic 62' for Ludogorets, Bernard Tekpetey 87' for Ludogorets. Sent off: Andrei Chindriş (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) 56'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 36.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.2% after a win, 34.5% after a draw, 40.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.5%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

For Ludogorets the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 14.6% going in: 17.5% after a win, 11.1% after a draw, 9.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.5%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Ludogorets has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 17% / 29% / 54% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 18% / 30% / 52%: the biggest move is Ludogorets's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Lokomotiv Plovdiv win18%▲ +1
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Ludogorets win52%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.