25 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow Premier League prediction & result

VEB Arena, Moscow
Referee: Kirill Levnikov
Full time2 – 0

Final score: CSKA Moscow 2-0 Spartak Moscow.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% CSKA Moscow, 27% draw, 38% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Spartak Moscow at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA Moscow99%Draw1%Spartak Moscow0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kirill Glebov
1'
Kirill Glebov
18'
⚽Tamerlan Musaevassist: Danil Krugovoy
24'
Matvey Lukin
36'
37'
Pablo Solari
João Victor da Silva Marcelino
62'
64'
🔁Srdjan Babicout: Igor Dmitriev
64'
🔁Victor Paradaout: Gedson Fernandes
🔁Tamerlan Musaevout: Matheus Reis
75'
🔁Kirill Glebovout: Matija Popović
75'
75'
🔁Marquinhosout: Daniil Denisov
75'
🔁Roman Zobninout: Mirlind Daku
Matija Popović
79'
Ivan Oblyakov
85'

Match stats — CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow

31%Possession69%
19Shots25
6On target10
5Corners5
1.69xG1.97

Goals against chances

CSKA Moscow2 from 1.69 xGabout what the chances were worth
Spartak Moscow0 from 1.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CSKA Moscow 5-3-2
  • 39M. BoriskoG
  • 21M. AzziD
  • 4João VictorD
  • 79M. ZeaD
  • 90M. LukinD
  • 3D. KrugovoyD
  • 10I. OblyakovM
  • 31M. KislyakM
  • 19I. OleynikovM
  • 17K. GlebovF
  • 11T. MusaevF
Substitutes
  • 52A. BandikyanM
  • 23Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovD
  • 7Matheus AlvesM
  • 85Egor BesaevG
  • 37HenriqueM
  • 62I. FirovF
  • 18D. KozlovM
  • 2Matheus ReisD
  • 49V. ToropG
Coach: Dmitriy Igdisamov
Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1
  • 98A. MaksimenkoG
  • 47R. ZobninD
  • 68R. LitvinovD
  • 6S. BabićD
  • 33Víctor ParadaD
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 5E. BarcoM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 83Gedson FernandesM
  • 19M. DakuF
  • 97D. DenisovD
  • 4A. DjikuD
  • 27I. DmitrievM
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
  • 24Nikita MassalygaM
  • 62P. PolekhF
  • 1I. PomazunG
Coach: Carcedo

Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow

CSKA Moscow

Premier League

  • L1-3away to Dynamo18 October 2026
  • W3-0Rodina Moskva11 October 2026

Spartak Moscow

Premier League

  • W4-0Rubin18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Krylia Sovetov10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5CSKA Moscow147522316+726
3Spartak Moscow149232711+1629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow

  • 6 May 2026Spartak Moscow 1–0 CSKA MoscowCup
  • 22 November 2025Spartak Moscow 1–0 CSKA MoscowPremier League
  • 5 October 2025CSKA Moscow 3–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 26 April 2025Spartak Moscow 1–2 CSKA MoscowPremier League
  • 2 November 2024CSKA Moscow 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 25 April 2024CSKA Moscow 0–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League

Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow

CSKA Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • I. Oblyakov71
  • I. Oleynikov34
  • K. Glebov31

Spartak Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ugalde60
  • M. Daku51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CSKA Moscow beat Spartak Moscow 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Spartak Moscow at 38% and given a win for CSKA Moscow 35%. The goals: Kirill Glebov 1' for CSKA Moscow, Tamerlan Musaev 24' for CSKA Moscow. On expected goals it finished 1.69–1.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave CSKA Moscow a 52.6% chance to finish in the top four: 61.5% after a win, 50.9% after a draw, 43.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.5%, 8.9 points higher than before the match.

For Spartak Moscow the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 79.7% going in: 87.3% after a win, 80.6% after a draw, 73.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.6%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on CSKA Moscow v Spartak Moscow has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is Spartak Moscow's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. CSKA Moscow win35%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Spartak Moscow win38%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.