25 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala Premier League prediction & result

Gazprom Arena, Saint Petersburg
Referee: Anton Frolov
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Zenit 2-0 Dinamo Makhachkala.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Zenit, 20% draw, 13% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zenit at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zenit99%Draw1%Dinamo Makhachkala0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Vadim Evseev
16'
⚽Valdemiro Pinto Domingos (pen)
43'
Makhmud Makhamadzhonov
51'
Andres Alarcon
56'
Mutalip Alibekov
• Marcilio Florencio Mota Filho
60'
62'
Kirill Zinovich
⚽Felipe Augusto (pen)
63'
64'
🔁Valdemiro Pinto Domingosout: Gamid Agalarov
65'
🔁Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejadout: Daniil Lesovoy
69'
🔁Houssem Mrezigueout: Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov
⚽Maksim Glushenkov (pen)
77'
83'
🔁Daler Kuzyaevout: Dmitriy Aleksandrov
83'
🔁Makhmud Makhamadzhonovout: Aleksandr Sandrachuk
🔁 Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santosout: Kevin Andrade
83'
🔁Felipe Augustoout: Jhon Jhon
83'
84'
Daniil Lesovoy
🔁Wílmar Barriosout: Daniil Kondakov
90'
🔁Luiz Henriqueout: Amir Musaev
90'
🔁Gustavo Mantuanout: Wendel
90+3'
90+6'
Gamid Agalarov
•Kevin Andrade
90+7'
⚽Kevin Andrade (pen)
90+8'

Match stats — Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala

68%Possession32%
21Shots5
10On target0
8Corners2
3.74xG0.94

Goals against chances

Zenit2 from 3.74 xGless than the chances were worth
Dinamo Makhachkala0 from 0.94 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zenit 4-2-3-1
  • 57B. MoskvichevG
  • 31Gustavo MantuanD
  • 33NinoD
  • 28N. AlipD
  • 3Douglas SantosD
  • 5W. BarriosM
  • 93A. KarpukasM
  • 10M. GlushenkovM
  • 20Pedro HenriqueM
  • 11Luiz HenriqueM
  • 9Felipe AugustoF
Substitutes
  • 16D. AdamovG
  • 25K. AndradeD
  • 14Jhon JhonM
  • 15V. KaravaevD
  • 61D. KondakovM
  • 51V. ShilovF
  • 82S. VolkovD
  • 8WendelM
  • 96Maksim ZaytsevG
Coach: S. Semak
Dinamo Makhachkala 5-3-2
  • 33N. KarabashevG
  • 77T. SundukovD
  • 24A. AlarcónD
  • 19K. ZinovichD
  • 99M. AlibekovD
  • 23M. MakhamadjonovD
  • 14D. KuzyaevM
  • 16H. MrezigueM
  • 47N. GlushkovM
  • 10M. HosseinnezhadF
  • 11MiroF
Substitutes
  • 88D. LesovoyM
  • 13S. KagermazovD
  • 21Abdulpasha DzhabrailovM
  • 30D. AleksandrovM
  • 43I. AkhmedovD
  • 25G. AgalarovF
  • 9R. MagomedovM
  • 39T. MagomedovG
  • 72A. SandrachukD
Coach: V. Evseev

Form going into Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Zenit

Premier League

  • W3-2Akhmat18 October 2026
  • W3-2away to FC Krasnodar10 October 2026

Dinamo Makhachkala

Premier League

  • D1-1Akron17 October 2026
  • L0-4away to FC Orenburg10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Zenit1410133215+1731
11Dinamo Makhachkala145181726-916

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala

  • 14 October 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 1–2 ZenitCup
  • 2 September 2026Zenit 3–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
  • 13 July 2026Zenit 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 July 2026Zenit 2–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 April 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 ZenitPremier League
  • 18 March 2026Zenit 1–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup

Leading scorers: Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala

Zenit

GoalsAssists

  • M. Glushenkov105
  • A. Sobolev102

Dinamo Makhachkala

GoalsAssists

  • G. Agalarov50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zenit beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Zenit at 67%. The goals: Felipe Augusto (penalty) 63' for Zenit, Maksim Glushenkov (penalty) 77' for Zenit. On expected goals it finished 3.74–0.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zenit a 46.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 49.3% after a win, 39.5% after a draw, 31.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.3%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

For Dinamo Makhachkala the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 39.8% going in: 25.6% after a win, 37.9% after a draw, 41.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.5%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.