25 October 2026, 12:15 UTC

Vasas vs Paks NB I prediction & result

Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest
Referee: F. Karako
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Vasas 0-2 Paks.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Vasas, 24% draw, 31% Paks — fair odds of 2.22, 4.17 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vasas at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vasas0%Draw6%Paks94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

A. Girsik
11'
Jozef Urblík
14'
35'
Bence Lenzsér
Sandor Hidi
56'
60'
🔁János Hahnout: Kevin Horvath
🔁A. Girsikout: C. Molnár
64'
Márk Kovácsréti
65'
🔁Dominik Balazs Sztojkaout: Szabolcs Mezei
71'
🔁Márk Kosztaout: Gergo Janos Palinkas
71'
Botond Baráth
76'
79'
🔁Milan Petőout: Zsolt Haraszti
79'
🔁Balázs Baloghout: Barna Tóth
80'
⚽Bálint Vécsei
🔁Viktor Heiout: Bence Janos Petho
85'
86'
🔁Jozsef Szalaiout: József Windecker
90+3'
⚽Kevin Horvath

Match stats — Vasas vs Paks

44%Possession56%
9Shots14
2On target4
5Corners9
0.73xG1.1

Goals against chances

Vasas0 from 0.73 xGless than the chances were worth
Paks2 from 1.10 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vasas 4-2-3-1
  • 87M. EngediG
  • 22Viktor HeiD
  • 36B. BaráthD
  • 17Dániel CsókaD
  • 14Á. DoktoricsD
  • 15S. HidiM
  • 6D. SztojkaM
  • 10M. KovácsrétiM
  • 88J. UrblíkM
  • 68A. GirsikM
  • 9M. KosztaF
Substitutes
  • 94B. CsekeM
  • 84Rajmund HorvathF
  • 24S. MezeiM
  • 34K. OtigbaD
  • 18G. PálinkásF
  • 4B. PávkovicsD
  • 29B. PethőF
  • 7A. RadóF
  • 26J. UramG
Coach: G. Erős
Paks 5-3-2
  • 28M. GyetvánG
  • 6M. GyőrfiD
  • 24B. LenzsérD
  • 2Á. KinyikD
  • 5B. VécseiD
  • 14E. SilyeD
  • 8B. BaloghM
  • 21K. PappM
  • 17M. PetőM
  • 9J. HahnF
  • 7J. SzalaiF
Substitutes
  • 22J. WindeckerM
  • 12G. VasD
  • 29B. TóthF
  • 4A. LapuM
  • 1Á. KovácsikG
  • 19K. HorváthM
  • 10Z. HarasztiF
  • 18G. GyurkitsM
  • 20M. SimuțD
Coach: G. Bognár

Form going into Vasas vs Paks

Vasas

NB I

  • L0-1away to MTK Budapest16 October 2026
  • D1-1Kisvarda FC10 October 2026

Paks

NB I

  • L1-2Gyori ETO FC17 October 2026
  • W3-0MTK Budapest10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Vasas134452019+116
5Paks136252422+220

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vasas vs Paks

  • 3 April 2024Vasas 2–5 PaksMagyar Kupa
  • 1 July 2023Paks 1–3 VasasFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 March 2023Vasas 2–3 PaksNB I
  • 1 March 2023Paks 2–3 VasasMagyar Kupa
  • 29 October 2022Paks 0–1 VasasNB I
  • 5 August 2022Vasas 2–2 PaksNB I

Leading scorers: Vasas and Paks

Vasas

GoalsAssists

  • J. Urblík33

Paks

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pető61
  • J. Szalai61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paks won 2–0 at Vasas. The model had leaned towards a win for Vasas at 45% and given a win for Paks 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Bálint Vécsei 80' for Paks, Kevin Horvath 90+3' for Paks. On expected goals it finished 0.73–1.10.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vasas a 28.8% chance to finish in the top three: 34.3% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 20.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.8%, 8 points lower than before the match.

For Paks the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 19.6% going in: 26.5% after a win, 17.5% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.5%, 6.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Vasas v Paks has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 51% / 22% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 24% / 31%: the biggest move is Vasas's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Vasas win45%▼ −6
  2. Draw24%▲ +2
  3. Paks win31%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.