15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Referee: E. Malcevs
Full time3 – 2

Final score: SC Freiburg 3-2 FK Jablonec.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% SC Freiburg, 20% draw, 12% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

SC Freiburg at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Nemanja Tekijaški
⚽V. Grifo
15'
28'
⚽A. Rusekassist: J. Slama
⚽D. Pavlovic (OG)
53'
•Matthias Ginter
54'
🔁C. Gunterout: J. Makengo
59'
🔁L. Holerout: I. Matanovic
59'
63'
Nelson Okeke
⚽M. Eggesteinassist: L. Kubler
65'
66'
🔁N. Okekeout: S. Nebyla
66'
🔁S. Alioumout: G. Kuol
🔁M. Rosenfelderout: P. Lienhart
71'
🔁C. Irieout: K. Goto
71'
Patrick Osterhage
72'
76'
🔁R. Sedlacekout: D. Soucek
76'
🔁A. Rusekout: D. Holly
77'
Dominik Hollý
🔁L. Kublerout: P. Treu
84'
84'
🔁M. Polidarout: J. Chramosta
90'
⚽G. Kuol

Match stats — SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec

60%Possession40%
23Shots11
9On target2
5Corners1
1.87xG1.18

Goals against chances

SC Freiburg3 from 1.87 xGmore than the chances were worth
FK Jablonec2 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BackhausG
  • 17L. KublerD
  • 28M. GinterD
  • 37M. RosenfelderD
  • 30C. GunterD
  • 8M. EggesteinM
  • 6P. OsterhageM
  • 22C. IrieM
  • 14Y. SuzukiM
  • 32V. GrifoM
  • 9L. HolerF
Substitutes
  • 21F. MullerG
  • 24J. HuthG
  • 33J. MakengoD
  • 5A. JungD
  • 3P. LienhartD
  • 29P. TreuD
  • 16Y. EngelhardtM
  • 20R. YamamotoM
  • 31I. MatanovicF
Coach: Julian Schuster
FK Jablonec 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. HanusG
  • 18M. CedidlaD
  • 4N. TekijaskiD
  • 15D. PavlovicD
  • 20J. SlamaD
  • 6N. OkekeM
  • 13R. SedlacekM
  • 7V. ChanturishviliM
  • 17S. AlioumM
  • 21M. PolidarM
  • 9A. RusekF
Substitutes
  • 99K. MihelakG
  • 57F. NovakD
  • 14D. SoucekD
  • 12D. NykrinD
  • 31E. MalyD
  • 8F. ZorvanM
  • 24D. HollyM
  • 25S. NebylaM
  • 19J. ChramostaF
Coach: Lubos Kozel

Form going into SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec

SC Freiburg

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Eintracht Frankfurt19 September 2026
  • W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
  • W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
  • W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026

FK Jablonec

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026
  • D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
  • W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
  • L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026

What these results say

  • SC Freiburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • SC Freiburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14SC Freiburg320145-16
23FK Jablonec302134-12

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

SC Freiburg beat FK Jablonec 3–2. The model had made a win for SC Freiburg its most likely outcome, at 68%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: V. Grifo 15' for SC Freiburg, A. Rusek 28' for FK Jablonec, D. Pavlovic (own goal) 53' for SC Freiburg, M. Eggestein 65' for SC Freiburg, G. Kuol 90' for FK Jablonec. On expected goals it finished 1.87–1.18.

How the call on SC Freiburg v FK Jablonec has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 62% / 23% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 68% / 20% / 12%: the biggest move is SC Freiburg's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. SC Freiburg win68%▲ +6
  2. Draw20%▼ −3
  3. FK Jablonec win12%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.