15 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Huracan vs Gimnasia La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Buenos Aires
Referee: Nicolas Ramirez
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Huracan 1-2 Gimnasia La Plata.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Huracan, 32% draw, 27% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 2.44, 3.13 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Huracan at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Huracan3%Draw94%Gimnasia La Plata3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽Ignacio Fernándezassist: Pedro Silva Torrejón
Oscar Cortes
28'
Leonardo Gil
29'
Rodrigo Fernández
37'
🔁Leonardo Gilout: Ignacio Pussetto
53'
🔁Facundo Kalinger di Napoliout: Thaiel Peralta
53'
61'
🔁Lucas Jansonout: Augusto Max
Facundo Waller
61'
Jordy Caicedo
68'
🔁Oscar Cortesout: Juan Francisco Bisanz
69'
•Facundo Waller
80'
83'
Harlen Castillo
⚽Jordy Caicedo (pen)
83'
87'
🔁Marcelo Torresout: Franco Ramón Torres
🔁Facundo Wallerout: Lautaro Iván Mora
89'
🔁Juan Francisco Bisanzout: Bruno Barticciotto
90'
Lucas Blondel
90+6'
90+7'
⚽Germán Contiassist: Ignacio Fernández

Match stats — Huracan vs Gimnasia La Plata

56%Possession44%
17Shots11
4On target6
11Corners3
1.94xG1.35

Goals against chances

Huracan1 from 1.94 xGless than the chances were worth
Gimnasia La Plata2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Huracan 4-2-3-1
  • 1H. GalíndezG
  • 2L. BlondelD
  • 6F. PereyraD
  • 35Máximo PalazzoD
  • 25C. IbáñezD
  • 5R. FernándezM
  • 15F. WallerM
  • 7Ó. CortésM
  • 8L. GilM
  • 24F. KalingerM
  • 9J. CaicedoF
Substitutes
  • 21M. NervoD
  • 20E. OjedaM
  • 11T. PeraltaM
  • 23I. PussettoF
  • 10Ó. RomeroM
  • 4F. VeraD
  • 33B. BarticciottoF
  • 17F. BisanzF
  • 19L. LescanoD
Coach: Diego Martinez
Gimnasia La Plata 4-4-2
  • 15H. CastilloG
  • 25A. SteimbachD
  • 13G. ContiD
  • 21E. MartínezD
  • 24P. SilvaD
  • 8I. FernándezM
  • 5I. MiramónM
  • 18M. SeoaneM
  • 17L. JansonM
  • 29A. AuzmendiF
  • 32M. TorresF
Substitutes
  • 23N. InsfránG
  • 4R. GiampaoliD
  • 35J. CortazzoD
  • 10N. SchelottoM
  • 33P. AguiarM
  • 16A. MaxM
  • 22M. MellusoD
  • 7M. PanaroF
  • 26F. TorresF
Coach: A. Pereyra

Form going into Huracan vs Gimnasia La Plata

Huracan

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L0-2away to Barracas Central10 October 2026

Gimnasia La Plata

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D1-1Atletico Tucuman9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Huracan166461416-222
3Gimnasia La Plata169432520+531

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Huracan vs Gimnasia La Plata

  • 5 April 2026Gimnasia La Plata 0–3 HuracanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 November 2024Huracan 0–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 13 February 2024Gimnasia La Plata 3–1 HuracanCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 20 September 2023Huracan 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 13 June 2023Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 HuracanLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Huracan vs Gimnasia La Plata record →

Leading scorers: Huracan and Gimnasia La Plata

Huracan

GoalsAssists

  • J. Caicedo140

Gimnasia La Plata

GoalsAssists

  • M. Torres102
  • A. Auzmendi84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gimnasia La Plata won 2–1 at Huracan. The model had leaned towards a win for Huracan at 41% and given a win for Gimnasia La Plata 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ignacio Fernández 18' for Gimnasia La Plata, Jordy Caicedo (penalty) 83' for Huracan, Germán Conti 90+7' for Gimnasia La Plata. On expected goals it finished 1.94–1.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Huracan a 23.7% chance to finish in the top four: 39.2% after a win, 12.8% after a draw, 6.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.5%, 17.2 points lower than before the match.

For Gimnasia La Plata the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 60.9% after a win, 32.7% after a draw, 17.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 60.9%.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.