6 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Allsvenskan prediction & result

3Arena, Stockholm
Referee: K. Karlsson
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Hammarby FF 4-1 IF Elfsborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Hammarby FF, 26% draw, 21% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hammarby FF at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Julius Magnusson
⚽Paulos Abrahamassist: Frank Junior Adjei
39'
45'
🔁Niklas Hultout: Ossian nordvall
⚽Paulos Abrahamassist: Warner Hahn
58'
60'
🔁Marcus Rohdénout: Ari Sigurpalsson
⚽Thomas Isherwood (OG)
65'
⚽Montader Madjedassist: Paulos Abraham
76'
79'
🔁Simon Olssonout: Arbër Zeneli
79'
🔁Momoh Ibrahim Kamaraout: Simon Hedlund
🔁Victor Lindout: Oscar Johansson
80'
🔁Montader Madjedout: Nahir Besara
80'
🔁Paulos Abrahamout: Oscar Steinke Brånby
80'
81'
⚽Leo Hakan Ostmanassist: Arbër Zeneli
88'
🔁Sebastian Holmenout: Jonathan Esenga

Match stats — Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg

63%Possession37%
17Shots8
6On target2
4Corners2
1.42xG1.3

Goals against chances

Hammarby FF4 from 1.42 xGmore than the chances were worth
IF Elfsborg1 from 1.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hammarby FF 4-3-3
  • 1W. HahnG
  • 2E. SkoglundD
  • 6I. FofanaD
  • 3F. WintherD
  • 16N. PerssonD
  • 28F. AdjeiM
  • 5T. TekieM
  • 8M. KarlssonM
  • 26M. MadjedF
  • 7P. AbrahamF
  • 9V. LindF
Substitutes
  • 20N. BesaraM
  • 4V. ErikssonD
  • 27F. JakobssonG
  • 34Filip JakobssonM
  • 11O. JohanssonM
  • 30S. KebbehF
  • 42O. MoczarnyM
  • 31O. Steinke BranbyD
  • 24W. ReneckeD
Coach: H. Rydström
IF Elfsborg 5-4-1
  • 12T. SanderG
  • 16A. JensenD
  • 8S. HolménD
  • 18J. MagnússonD
  • 4T. IsherwoodD
  • 23N. HultD
  • 7M. RohdénM
  • 19J. BeckM
  • 10S. OlssonM
  • 29M. KamaraM
  • 21L. ÖstmanF
Substitutes
  • 22D. KrasniqiF
  • 5O. NordvallM
  • 27Oladimeji Oluwatimilehin AbdulmuizM
  • 31I. PetterssonG
  • 25A. SigurpálssonF
  • 9A. ZeneliM
  • 15S. HedlundM
  • 3J. EsengaD
  • 20K. BerndtssonD
Coach: Björn Hamberg

Form going into Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg

Hammarby FF

Allsvenskan

  • W2-1away to Malmo FF1 November 2026
  • W2-0Sirius29 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Mjallby AIF25 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Halmstad18 October 2026

IF Elfsborg

Allsvenskan

  • W2-1Orgryte IS1 November 2026
  • D2-2away to AIK Stockholm27 October 2026
  • D0-0Malmo FF23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Sirius18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Hammarby FF won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Hammarby FF scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Hammarby FF kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • IF Elfsborg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • IF Elfsborg failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • IF Elfsborg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Hammarby FF2818466023+3758
5IF Elfsborg28121064231+1146

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg

  • 5 July 2026IF Elfsborg 1–2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 9 November 2025Hammarby FF 3–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 31 May 2025IF Elfsborg 0–2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 22 September 2024IF Elfsborg 0–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 15 April 2024Hammarby FF 3–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 13 August 2023Hammarby FF 1–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg

Hammarby FF

GoalsAssists

  • P. Abraham174
  • V. Lind1013
  • M. Madjed82

IF Elfsborg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Östman112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 4–1. The model had made a win for Hammarby FF its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Paulos Abraham 39' for Hammarby FF, Paulos Abraham 58' for Hammarby FF, Thomas Isherwood (own goal) 65' for Hammarby FF, Montader Madjed 76' for Hammarby FF, Leo Hakan Ostman 81' for IF Elfsborg. On expected goals it finished 1.42–1.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hammarby FF a 35.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 47.7% after a win, 23.4% after a draw, 11.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.7%, 12 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hammarby FF v IF Elfsborg has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Hammarby FF's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Hammarby FF win53%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. IF Elfsborg win21%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.